MLB · resolved market
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda4307a4ec94e61d4607b8171267e48571036c53975146fbe46e173457ad0aa1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pittsburgh Piratesof Pittsburgh Pirates, Chicago Cubs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,299
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,285
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,299 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 39c | 5,027$1,964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,063.49 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Chicago Cubs | 61c | 2,500$1,535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,535 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Chicago Cubs | 61c | 995$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.95 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 890$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.2 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Chicago Cubs | 26c | 716.78$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.04 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Chicago Cubs | 60c | 701.09$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.65 | 493 | 58.8%290 W · 203 L | +30.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Chicago Cubs | 26c | 520.94$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.49 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 35c | 479.15$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.44 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Chicago Cubs | 60c | 450.45$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.34 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 73c | 391.78$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.78 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Chicago Cubs | 61c | 380.08$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.47 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Chicago Cubs | 62c | 320$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.4 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 273.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.87 | 293 | 44.7%131 W · 162 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Chicago Cubs | 62c | 234.68$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.48 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Chicago Cubs | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Chicago Cubs | 63c | 196.77$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.34 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Chicago Cubs | 61c | 187.47$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.36 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 74c | 173.91$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.22 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Chicago Cubs | 62c | 152.11$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.31 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 135$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.7 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Chicago Cubs | 63c | 130$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.9 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Chicago Cubs | 61c | 122.95$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 39c | 116$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.76 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 39c | 116$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.76 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Chicago Cubs | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa188…62eabacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.08 | 252 | 48%121 W · 131 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 76c | 78.05$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Chicago Cubs | 65c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Chicago Cubs | 64c | 51.19$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee5…be70backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 41.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Chicago Cubs | 65c | 37.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 396 | 53.5%212 W · 184 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Chicago Cubs | 45c | 35.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Chicago Cubs | 65c | 32.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce98…fbb1backed Chicago Cubs | 61c | 25.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Chicago Cubs | 61c | 25.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…f008backed Chicago Cubs | 64c | 24.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Chicago Cubs | 65c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 77c | 23.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Chicago Cubs | 65c | 21.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 661 | 59.5%393 W · 268 L | +3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Chicago Cubs | 64c | 19.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 802 | 55%441 W · 361 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Chicago Cubs | 65c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 12.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 13.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-4.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-5.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-7.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh PiratesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.