MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3ecb679de1f80f60931dada10875e4e56e21e6562e4d26eb9c301f76bad17aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,959
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,772
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,959 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb91a…3987backed Over | 47c | 7,094$3,334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,759.98 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +15.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 49c | 4,075$1,985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,090.27 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 53c | 3,743$1,984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,983.88 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 46c | 2,521$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,361.45 | 321 | 52%167 W · 154 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Under | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 52c | 1,218$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.31 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 54c | 1,130$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.41 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 54c | 1,088$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.52 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 54c | 1,010$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.4 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 61c | 817.43$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.35 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 43c | 694.78$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.62 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 54c | 648.97$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.44 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 43c | 631.35$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.12 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Under | 52c | 480.77$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 384 | 55.2%212 W · 172 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 53c | 400$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 65c | 399.98$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.99 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05e0…e2cbbacked Under | 35c | 371.43$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Over | 47c | 326.68$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.71 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 52c | 299$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.48 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 15c | 193.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1252…e6e0backed Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fd…3e24backed Under | 54c | 183.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 46c | 176.44$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.28 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 41c | 167.54$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.69 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Over | 56c | 106.18$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.18 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260b…aa9ebacked Under | 12c | 89.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 125 | 55.2%69 W · 56 L | +9.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…dbc6backed Over | 45c | 85.94$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.27 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 42c | 73.21$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 57c | 65.39$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 79c | 58$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Under | 52c | 55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 395 | 53.7%212 W · 183 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Under | 55c | 53.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 46c | 47.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 46c | 36.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 66c | 34.16$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 80c | 33.35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 35c | 31.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Under | 48c | 30.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 74c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Under | 39c | 27.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 52c | 23.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ded…3350backed Over | 75c | 16.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8263…e0f1backed Over | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 347 | 54.8%190 W · 157 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 12.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 13.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-4.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-5.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-7.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh PiratesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.