Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb1d088b6a6a15b876444140be58c7ca5393aaed6aa06a1b2fd761b402573396
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,554
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,421
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,554 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 42c | 174.19$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.07 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 46c | 163.09$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.62 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 55c | 137.76$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.18 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e88…697dbacked Yes | 49c | 120$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 9c | 114.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 53c | 103.87$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.12 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 40c | 95.55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.91 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 54c | 86.51$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.34 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 83.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.54 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 53c | 81.48$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.96 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 64.91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…3b13backed Yes | 40c | 51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.42 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 53c | 50.04$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.17 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 55c | 42.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 58c | 41.37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 59c | 41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 41c | 40.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e7…b9a1backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48db…3939backed Yes | 45c | 39.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…835cbacked Yes | 43c | 34.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 66c | 32.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 48c | 30.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 59c | 30.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 54c | 24.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 54c | 21.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 69c | 20.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70a9…6f76backed No | 70c | 20.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 60c | 20.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…32d8backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 136 | 55.1%75 W · 61 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 57c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0558…a8cdbacked No | 56c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 118 | 67.8%80 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed No | 61c | 17.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 152 | 58.6%89 W · 63 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.