Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e284e6f631f0588ce861262e2825f7192c538e1a0c6eff005ba79ed1d7f6f1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,310
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,496
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,310 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 30c | 1,474$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.25 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 32c | 807.4$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.37 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 70c | 400$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 33c | 234.6$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.42 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 7c | 230.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 6c | 222.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 33c | 208$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.47 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 70c | 152.42$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.2 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb69…06a9backed Yes | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 71c | 137.74$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.01 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 33c | 125.96$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.54 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed No | 68c | 120$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 68c | 114.56$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.04 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 71c | 104$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aed…2653backed Yes | 15c | 94.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 93.21$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.53 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 32c | 81.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c8…3730backed Yes | 20c | 79.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 38c | 65.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 69c | 58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 32c | 56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 70c | 54$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4647…d97fbacked No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce5…6233backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 135 | 59.3%80 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48db…3939backed Yes | 38c | 39.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b7…cdb7backed No | 71c | 37.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 36c | 35.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 30c | 34.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 34c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf444…8d4abacked No | 68c | 28.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68cf…8cf8backed No | 72c | 27.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 64c | 21.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 65c | 20.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 68c | 20.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3e…5a86backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x326c…ef55backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 66c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on July 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.