TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Washington Nationals (-4.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Houston Astrosof Washington Nationals, Houston Astros
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,546
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,551

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,546 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7b7f…d56cbacked Houston Astros42c6,741$2,818 inWon+$3,923.071637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Washington Nationals57c4,833$2,766 inLost-$2,766.1811,51952.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L+213.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Washington Nationals58c1,810$1,050 inLost-$1,049.8410,97951.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L+139.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Washington Nationals51c1,096$554 inLost-$553.962,09351.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L+44.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Washington Nationals59c529.03$312 inLost-$312.134,51548.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L-46.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Houston Astros51c502.4$256 inWon+$246.151,87452%975 W · 899 L+51.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Houston Astros48c487.04$234 inWon+$253.261,94753.1%1,033 W · 914 L+43.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed Houston Astros52c122.6$64 inWon+$58.8520456.9%116 W · 88 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf66e…14b7backed Houston Astros52c105$55 inWon+$50.3517659.7%105 W · 71 L+12.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf655…7f1abacked Houston Astros48c80.59$38 inWon+$42.1941236.7%151 W · 261 L-16.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xac1a…8689backed Houston Astros52c55$29 inWon+$26.355843.1%25 W · 33 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-21.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc593…ea8cbacked Houston Astros52c55$29 inWon+$26.359557.9%55 W · 40 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6701…d7d2backed Houston Astros52c55$29 inWon+$26.3513545.2%61 W · 74 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09da…50bcbacked Houston Astros52c49.75$26 inWon+$23.8831354.6%171 W · 142 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x56cc…d589backed Washington Nationals60c18.24$11 inLost-$11.011,27857%728 W · 550 L+33.3wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.