MLB · resolved market
Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30fa9ab5ef152c97c5c14e5a15e3e50b438dbc916cbc248f9cd4745a4af3a00b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,968
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,806
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,968 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9a4c…1f30backed Under | 56c | 13,000$7,271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,270.88 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 59c | 12,514$7,402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,111.55 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 48c | 1,997$964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$963.96 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 44c | 1,807$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,011.78 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Under | 56c | 1,700$952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$951.99 | 237 | 58.6%139 W · 98 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 54c | 1,500$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 45c | 1,383$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.14 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 44c | 1,308$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732.28 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 45c | 1,088$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.4 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 44c | 1,086$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.17 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 55c | 974$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.7 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Under | 54c | 920$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.8 | 360 | 48.6%175 W · 185 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 26c | 839.99$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.59 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 64c | 598$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.18 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 45c | 581.94$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.93 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 70c | 536.98$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.11 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Under | 32c | 505$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.6 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…ff44backed Under | 56c | 462$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.72 | 264 | 44.3%117 W · 147 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Over | 44c | 454.55$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.55 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Over | 46c | 453.85$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.08 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 27c | 399$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.73 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 56c | 326.59$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.7 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 54c | 317.81$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.62 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 45c | 282.79$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.72 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…307fbacked Under | 59c | 246.1$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 812 | 57.3%465 W · 347 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 56c | 243.8$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.53 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 68c | 237.73$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.07 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 31c | 224.4$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.72 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 78c | 215.47$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.15 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 44c | 198.45$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.13 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 31c | 185.18$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.41 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3c…e8c9backed Under | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 349 | 42.7%149 W · 200 L | -19.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe426…f4ffbacked Over | 44c | 168.75$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.5 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 77c | 132.52$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…0306backed Under | 28c | 125$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…aa44backed Over | 44c | 118.63$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.43 | 515 | 45.2%233 W · 282 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Over | 44c | 86$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.16 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Under | 32c | 81.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21bb…c5dbbacked Over | 65c | 64.6$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…31cebacked Under | 34c | 58.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +12.8wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 45c | 41.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0b…d29dbacked Over | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.84 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 57c | 28.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x326d…3584backed Under | 53c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 65 | 27.7%18 W · 47 L | -13.9wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa25a…04b7backed Under | 56c | 24.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 145 | 46.2%67 W · 78 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42fe…b1d0backed Over | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 20 | 85%17 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 70cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7be0…ca40backed Over | 80c | 13.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.79 | 87 | 75.9%66 W · 21 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5this page
- Houston Astros vs. Washington NationalsWashington Nationals won
- Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 13.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 15.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 16.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 17.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 18.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 19.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 23.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-4.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Washington NationalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.