MLB · resolved market
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0540d118ecdc4b5813752e753f88a55f9121807298fca91a6fab8953504cf24b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof Houston Astros, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,382
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,638
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,382 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Washington Nationals | 64c | 3,070$1,961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,108.69 | 925 | 54.1%500 W · 425 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…d56cbacked Houston Astros | 5c | 2,228$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Houston Astros | 36c | 1,133$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.86 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Washington Nationals | 29c | 997.42$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.17 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Houston Astros | 59c | 920.26$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.04 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Houston Astros | 36c | 825$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Washington Nationals | 66c | 544.52$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.13 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Houston Astros | 36c | 503.96$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.42 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Houston Astros | 37c | 489.91$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.27 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Houston Astros | 36c | 476$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.36 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Houston Astros | 36c | 455.75$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.07 | 411 | 41.4%170 W · 241 L | -21.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Houston Astros | 65c | 417.87$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.57 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Houston Astros | 70c | 390.19$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.63 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Washington Nationals | 30c | 335$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.85 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Washington Nationals | 63c | 232$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.7 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Houston Astros | 71c | 207$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.81 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Houston Astros | 63c | 206.58$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.43 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…0c5fbacked Houston Astros | 31c | 158.06$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Washington Nationals | 69c | 149.58$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.77 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Washington Nationals | 68c | 131.75$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.35 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Washington Nationals | 80c | 126.6$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed Houston Astros | 37c | 112.79$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.73 | 117 | 55.6%65 W · 52 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71ac…5fd6backed Houston Astros | 29c | 108.03$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Houston Astros | 24c | 99.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Houston Astros | 36c | 91.69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Washington Nationals | 79c | 83.13$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Houston Astros | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Houston Astros | 36c | 80$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…0306backed Houston Astros | 31c | 61.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Washington Nationals | 64c | 59.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9280…4d46backed Houston Astros | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Washington Nationals | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Houston Astros | 37c | 49.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Washington Nationals | 43c | 45.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.82 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Houston Astros | 34c | 36.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Houston Astros | 38c | 35.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Washington Nationals | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Houston Astros | 39c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 573 | 46.9%269 W · 304 L | +14.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…31cebacked Washington Nationals | 74c | 26.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +12.8wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed Houston Astros | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 244 | 48.8%119 W · 125 L | -14.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Washington Nationals | 61c | 18.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 906 | 69.9%633 W · 273 L | +94.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)this page
- Houston Astros vs. Washington NationalsWashington Nationals won
- Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 13.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 15.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 16.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 17.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 18.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 19.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 23.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-4.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Washington NationalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.