TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$98,190
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$113,620

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $98,190 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3dfb…abafbacked Under48c44,444$21,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,333.11,38549.5%685 W · 700 L-4.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26b4…b8a9backed Over53c15,142$7,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,142.943554%235 W · 200 L-0.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Over52c14,617$7,633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,984.722,29152.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Over52c7,011$3,662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,349.3511,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over52c7,000$3,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,36044749.2%220 W · 227 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Under47c6,270$2,947 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,946.9221748.4%105 W · 112 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Over53c5,000$2,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,3401,06348.2%512 W · 551 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Over53c4,420$2,341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,079.184,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e77…8c33backed Under47c2,874$1,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,350.8628350.9%144 W · 139 L-0.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under47c2,835$1,337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,337.455,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Under46c2,659$1,223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,223.314,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Under47c1,111$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522.161,35250.8%687 W · 665 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Over52c989.68$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475.042,29051%1,167 W · 1,123 L+23.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under47c930.11$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.154,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a30…8abdbacked Over55c904.59$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.0768053.2%362 W · 318 L+2.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over52c884$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.326,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4658…4131backed Under45c777.77$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35049158.9%289 W · 202 L+30.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+12.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Over52c734.09$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.3616945%76 W · 93 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a3f…4333backed Under48c624.5$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.8856253.2%299 W · 263 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x09af…9728backed Over53c598.26$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.1889153.5%477 W · 414 L+24.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Under46c501.07$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.1840341.4%167 W · 236 L-20.0wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over53c480.53$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.912,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under46c472.9$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.618,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Over52c390$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.21,55548.9%761 W · 794 L+1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed Over53c378.14$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.142751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf15b…000fbacked Over53c377.36$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.3612253.3%65 W · 57 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba62…3e29backed Over53c377.36$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.3622149.3%109 W · 112 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-2.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b8d…bb92backed Over52c299.99$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.9958652.7%309 W · 277 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x789f…2e8abacked Over62c242.02$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.021471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick63cpaid+14.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under38c237.02$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.0710,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Under48c215$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.721,43550%717 W · 718 L+25.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c3c…e8c9backed Under47c212.76$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10034942.7%149 W · 200 L-19.9wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Over71c212.04$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.022,01251.2%1,031 W · 981 L+43.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc365…2e53backed Under43c209.08$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.91,60753.2%855 W · 752 L+74.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ed3…274cbacked Under49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10058649.5%290 W · 296 L+0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over52c199$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.523,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8508…c22fbacked Over52c198.08$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.081,00052.4%524 W · 476 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Over53c191.28$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.92,02139.5%798 W · 1,223 L-25.7wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc9e…5a9ebacked Over54c185.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.1934255.3%189 W · 153 L+10.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xafca…92b4backed Over52c182.48$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.5918154.7%99 W · 82 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over51c173.49$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.3512,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cb1…1002backed Under48c161.02$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.2921350.2%107 W · 106 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under47c143$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.212,29649.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L+37.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeef6…cd4cbacked Over52c140.15$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.2755653.4%297 W · 259 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f46…85c0backed Over53c128.3$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.321853.2%116 W · 102 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21bb…c5dbbacked Over63c112.19$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.033154.8%17 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Over53c103$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.411,56951.1%801 W · 768 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4731…addabacked Over53c101.19$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e50…4b22backed Under46c99.99$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467755.8%43 W · 34 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc6d…31cebacked Under22c90.9$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2013946.8%65 W · 74 L+12.8wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+30.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0954…012abacked Over55c72.19$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.191,19753.9%645 W · 552 L+42.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xab8b…24ffbacked Over52c63.23$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5624843.5%108 W · 140 L-13.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-23%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7be0…ca40backed Over59c62.84$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.878775.9%66 W · 21 L+9.7wins+0.11per pick65cpaid+18.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Under51c61$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1131848.7%155 W · 163 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd17a…0373backed Over53c60$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.277050.5%389 W · 381 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d69…ab3abacked Over55c54.55$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.5514450.7%73 W · 71 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Under45c54.55$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.553,83242.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1465…e0dbbacked Under48c53.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4814544.8%65 W · 80 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9555…889abacked Over53c50.74$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.851,00157.3%574 W · 427 L+2.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Under47c48.47$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.612,94547.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L+3.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59ab…18c6backed Over53c47.17$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.1711151.4%57 W · 54 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c9e…fd82backed Under49c44.9$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227047.1%33 W · 37 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc730…c568backed Under47c42.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2035747.6%170 W · 187 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over61c41.27$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.29,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Over53c40.09$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191,81449.1%891 W · 923 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb2e…7821backed Over52c40$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.273849.3%364 W · 374 L+0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fd6…81f6backed Over62c39.66$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.0710864.8%70 W · 38 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x522f…1164backed Under47c37$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3939250.3%197 W · 195 L+18.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c1f…a7d2backed Over55c36.04$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.042339.1%9 W · 14 L-3.3wins-0.15per pick54cpaid-25.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf88b…0ed2backed Over53c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.18252.4%43 W · 39 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e0f…2deebacked Over53c27.55$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.9517952%93 W · 86 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a0b…d29dbacked Over52c27.5$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.218151.9%94 W · 87 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x56cc…d589backed Over53c27.06$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.841,24556.9%708 W · 537 L+31.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb09c…fe75backed Over53c24.45$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.491145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Under49c24$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.766,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under47c23$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.811,52148.6%739 W · 782 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa662…c8adbacked Over53c22.64$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.64560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Over52c20.72$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.015,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed Over53c19.87$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.3759749.9%298 W · 299 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.