TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,752
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,754

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,752 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes58c940$545 inWon+$394.82,29152.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f15…bdb3backed No42c447.9$188 inLost-$188.1277647.4%368 W · 408 L+1.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d02…bfecbacked No43c407.96$174 inLost-$173.8334044.4%151 W · 189 L-14.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd73a…0f4ebacked Yes58c200$116 inWon+$8441152.3%215 W · 196 L-13.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked No42c167$70 inLost-$70.141,52148.6%739 W · 782 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f3d…95b1backed Yes56c142.86$80 inWon+$62.8628639.2%112 W · 174 L+11.5wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a30…e0c1backed No43c116.28$50 inLost-$504358.1%25 W · 18 L+5.9wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+27.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed No42c72.42$30 inLost-$30.428,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5777…f1a7backed No42c72$30 inLost-$30.247343.8%32 W · 41 L-4.3wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb7d…7862backed No43c66.05$28 inLost-$28.439553.7%212 W · 183 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b7f…bb6dbacked No43c58$25 inLost-$24.9414751.7%76 W · 71 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa384…3c9fbacked Yes57c44$25 inWon+$18.9228147.7%134 W · 147 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes57c43.9$25 inWon+$18.882,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Yes58c18$10 inWon+$7.561,85153.1%982 W · 869 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18d8…400bbacked Yes58c18$10 inWon+$7.5611843.2%51 W · 67 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.