TailMyPicks
Market

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Houston Astrosof Washington Nationals, Houston Astros
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$51,568
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$57,161

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,568 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7b7f…d56cbacked Houston Astros31c17,817$5,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,286.941637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Houston Astros68c13,175$8,955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,220.0710,97951.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L+139.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Washington Nationals62c4,358$2,699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,698.558,19246.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L+38.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Washington Nationals71c4,145$2,943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,943.224,51548.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L-46.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Washington Nationals28c2,771$785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$785.051,87452%975 W · 899 L+51.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Washington Nationals70c2,571$1,796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,795.7737844.4%168 W · 210 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Houston Astros49c2,173$1,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,102.6512,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Washington Nationals45c1,938$878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$878.194,36847.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L-79.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Houston Astros55c1,468$802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.826,12355.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L+346.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Houston Astros68c807.27$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.492,09351.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L+44.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed Washington Nationals29c611.65$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.7620456.9%116 W · 88 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Houston Astros79c563.17$446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.064,40544.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L+80.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf66e…14b7backed Washington Nationals30c552$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.6917659.7%105 W · 71 L+12.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc365…2e53backed Washington Nationals32c542$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.441,60753.2%855 W · 752 L+74.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Washington Nationals35c499.97$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.995,47150.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L+21.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Washington Nationals31c489.07$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.5731848.7%155 W · 163 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Washington Nationals35c452.85$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.612,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Houston Astros64c359.23$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.48,40347.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L+76.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x349e…867bbacked Washington Nationals29c328.17$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.5220156.2%113 W · 88 L+8.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x56ac…d77ebacked Washington Nationals36c315$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.473650.7%373 W · 363 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xac1a…8689backed Washington Nationals31c274$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.25843.1%25 W · 33 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-21.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa69d…228ebacked Washington Nationals37c268$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.1619435.6%69 W · 125 L-7.8wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Washington Nationals12c249.51$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.943,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09da…50bcbacked Washington Nationals28c247.97$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.7231354.6%171 W · 142 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc593…ea8cbacked Washington Nationals31c238$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.59557.9%55 W · 40 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2bf3…4f00backed Washington Nationals29c232.68$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.5913255.3%73 W · 59 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Washington Nationals30c205.43$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.4370737.6%266 W · 441 L+24.5wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Washington Nationals59c182$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.915,81243.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L-188.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7693…470fbacked Houston Astros64c156.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.2521354.5%116 W · 97 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Washington Nationals26c143.9$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.0511,51952.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L+213.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Washington Nationals37c139.97$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.791,94753.1%1,033 W · 914 L+43.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf213…a627backed Washington Nationals37c135.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5068942.2%291 W · 398 L+18.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6701…d7d2backed Washington Nationals31c135$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.7313545.2%61 W · 74 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb213…49e1backed Washington Nationals34c132.83$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.1612956.6%73 W · 56 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd991…faeabacked Houston Astros65c123.08$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.0840449.3%199 W · 205 L-13.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x72f3…d396backed Houston Astros65c120$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4251646.9%242 W · 274 L-21.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x25c1…7e8ebacked Houston Astros65c116.8$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.8819954.3%108 W · 91 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea6e…7c46backed Houston Astros65c107.69$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.6967449.4%333 W · 341 L-28.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Washington Nationals28c98.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.729,81946.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L+39.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e43…0306backed Washington Nationals44c92.98$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6723435%82 W · 152 L-10.2wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-15.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf655…7f1abacked Washington Nationals40c92$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.841236.7%151 W · 261 L-16.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Houston Astros59c91.88$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.672,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Washington Nationals41c91.88$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.675,14954.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L+231.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Houston Astros69c85$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.3510453.8%56 W · 48 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x19e5…dd71backed Washington Nationals28c80.14$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7212855.5%71 W · 57 L+7.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+12.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a21…4aa9backed Houston Astros65c77$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2715252%79 W · 73 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff19…3ebebacked Houston Astros54c73$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.5841048.3%198 W · 212 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0f4…6fa9backed Washington Nationals21c70$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.351,77758.4%1,037 W · 740 L+91.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Washington Nationals38c68.56$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.053,84142.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L+0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36f4…0eb2backed Houston Astros62c68.56$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.0585949.1%422 W · 437 L-3.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc23…a9f2backed Washington Nationals37c68$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1646854.5%255 W · 213 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1719…ec68backed Washington Nationals37c68$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1672154.2%391 W · 330 L+20.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+144.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x976a…e8ecbacked Houston Astros54c66.27$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.551,02250.6%517 W · 505 L+54.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+21.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Washington Nationals49c66.05$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.348,59452.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L+508.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2a0a…75acbacked Houston Astros64c62.5$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.546546%214 W · 251 L-17.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbbe2…6158backed Houston Astros65c61.54$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.5446759.7%279 W · 188 L+2.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c49…1862backed Houston Astros65c61.54$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.5435353.8%190 W · 163 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Houston Astros61c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.577852.2%406 W · 372 L+36.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x12b4…a662backed Houston Astros64c49.99$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.931,13357.2%648 W · 485 L+35.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed Washington Nationals28c48$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.426751.7%138 W · 129 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab8b…24ffbacked Houston Astros71c48$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.1624843.5%108 W · 140 L-13.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-23%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc29c…1e43backed Washington Nationals37c40.54$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151764.7%11 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+12.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x522f…1164backed Washington Nationals37c38$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0639250.3%197 W · 195 L+18.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb1a3…d760backed Washington Nationals37c37.84$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1424644.7%110 W · 136 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x113f…ae4dbacked Washington Nationals29c35.96$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.355853.4%31 W · 27 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5663…f2e5backed Washington Nationals28c35.86$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.158660.5%52 W · 34 L+10.0wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+25.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Houston Astros68c33.32$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.611,73749.1%852 W · 885 L+7.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a0b…d29dbacked Houston Astros69c32.47$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.1518151.9%94 W · 87 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed Houston Astros65c32.42$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.4259749.9%298 W · 299 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec66…e58fbacked Houston Astros65c30.77$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.7731350.2%157 W · 156 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04ed…0adfbacked Houston Astros64c30.69$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.0524657.3%141 W · 105 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc6d…31cebacked Washington Nationals72c27.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9913946.8%65 W · 74 L+12.8wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+30.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x21bb…c5dbbacked Houston Astros70c24.02$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.273154.8%17 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x973e…22ebbacked Houston Astros64c21.88$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.8889950.6%455 W · 444 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd155…8250backed Houston Astros68c20.8$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.6650954%275 W · 234 L+15.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed Houston Astros74c19.39$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.041,37950.6%698 W · 681 L-2.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f0b…5720backed Houston Astros65c19$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.653268.8%22 W · 10 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x08b5…359dbacked Houston Astros65c16.49$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.774452.3%23 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.