La Liga · resolved market
Spread: Villarreal CF (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb35a522f162fc19e0d7959b06f79fe81f329dc5c0d9a74f13f0cc8400e5529b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Athletic Clubof Villarreal CF, Athletic Club
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,207
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,655
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,207 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Athletic Club | 74c | 1,245$916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.22 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff8…d7fdbacked Villarreal CF | 24c | 1,194$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.32 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dd…b525backed Villarreal CF | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Villarreal CF | 56c | 643.27$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.23 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…0924backed Villarreal CF | 10c | 598.08$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.81 | 76 | 36.8%28 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cff…15d1backed Villarreal CF | 10c | 588.13$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.81 | 227 | 40.1%91 W · 136 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Athletic Club | 75c | 523.91$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.87 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ff…35ccbacked Villarreal CF | 14c | 276.76$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Villarreal CF | 55c | 272.35$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.61 | 923 | 45.5%420 W · 503 L | -30.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…651bbacked Villarreal CF | 44c | 259.36$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.09 | 601 | 47.9%288 W · 313 L | +50.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x772f…a69fbacked Villarreal CF | 10c | 186.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3e…5329backed Villarreal CF | 11c | 170.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Villarreal CF | 18c | 152.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 1,508 | 38.7%583 W · 925 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Villarreal CF | 46c | 143.28$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.56 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d87…8dbbbacked Athletic Club | 49c | 121.14$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.22 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Villarreal CF | 9c | 115.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 342 | 52%178 W · 164 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…0262backed Athletic Club | 27c | 106.24$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.56 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2480…c148backed Villarreal CF | 14c | 97.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 65 | 12.3%8 W · 57 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Villarreal CF | 11c | 96.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 744 | 57.5%428 W · 316 L | +22.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Athletic Club | 44c | 75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 421 | 58%244 W · 177 L | +29.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd945…fbd1backed Villarreal CF | 56c | 69.54$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Villarreal CF | 50c | 57.23$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Athletic Club | 35c | 42.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.43 | 413 | 23.2%96 W · 317 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e4…d947backed Villarreal CF | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17a3…8cb3backed Villarreal CF | 56c | 19.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Villarreal CF (-1.5)this page
- Athletic Club vs. Villarreal CF: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Athletic Club vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 1.5Over won
- Athletic Club vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 2.5Over won
- Athletic Club vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 3.5Under won
- Athletic Club vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Athletic Club (-1.5)Villarreal CF won
- Spread: Villarreal CF (-2.5)Athletic Club won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.