La Liga · resolved market
Athletic Club vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a91dd369676de09fb7fb42714a4aa9b8398369b57c0af9ed1418a52e99e8565
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,440
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,090
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,440 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 22c | 2,963$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.85 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b3f…5a9fbacked Over | 72c | 2,734$1,966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$767.84 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2fb…b9f0backed Over | 76c | 2,483$1,887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.03 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 20c | 1,786$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.85 | 908 | 43.6%396 W · 512 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaac8…b6f1backed Over | 76c | 1,298$986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.44 | 145 | 49.7%72 W · 73 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 24c | 1,041$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.84 | 504 | 49.8%251 W · 253 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 35c | 911.64$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.66 | 923 | 45.5%420 W · 503 L | -30.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 24c | 837.18$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.26 | 2,343 | 48.5%1,137 W · 1,206 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 35c | 778.2$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.18 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 24c | 696.99$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.28 | 644 | 57%367 W · 277 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 22c | 599.27$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.27 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 24c | 431.96$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.67 | 280 | 45.4%127 W · 153 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 24c | 400$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 482 | 51.2%247 W · 235 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…651bbacked Over | 61c | 366.53$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.81 | 601 | 47.9%288 W · 313 L | +50.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed Under | 3c | 330.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +203%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…7ae4backed Over | 76c | 325.4$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.1 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 12c | 284.16$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 132 | 51.5%68 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a73…a9c8backed Over | 62c | 276.79$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 74c | 266.05$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.17 | 174 | 66.1%115 W · 59 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe91c…5331backed Over | 76c | 248.35$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.6 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8277…7d31backed Under | 13c | 207.2$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 75c | 206.5$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.62 | 424 | 58%246 W · 178 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ff…35ccbacked Over | 76c | 178.48$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.87 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 79c | 158.42$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.88 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed Over | 76c | 129.68$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.12 | 136 | 68.4%93 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f354backed Under | 13c | 123.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x151e…c6dbbacked Over | 76c | 99.34$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 78cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 67c | 98.42$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.48 | 627 | 44.3%278 W · 349 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 19c | 96.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 1,508 | 38.7%583 W · 925 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Over | 76c | 78.85$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 59 | 67.8%40 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f15…50cbbacked Under | 27c | 70.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96b0…76dfbacked Under | 27c | 69.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94ab…83f5backed Over | 70c | 56.11$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 48 | 77.1%37 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 25c | 55.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 276 | 53.6%148 W · 128 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b59…2044backed Over | 76c | 38.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 71c | 35.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 839 | 39.8%334 W · 505 L | -21.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa79d…ee14backed Over | 67c | 35.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…bf04backed Over | 76c | 33.93$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd42…9588backed Over | 74c | 33.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7e…fac0backed Over | 72c | 32.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe083…d0d5backed Over | 70c | 29.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd475…35c5backed Over | 75c | 26.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7b…c2f4backed Over | 76c | 25.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 77cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 71c | 24.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 596 | 55.4%330 W · 266 L | +31.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68e7…0169backed Over | 76c | 19.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x062c…10c7backed Over | 76c | 16.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7776…5bdcbacked Over | 73c | 16.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletic Club vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 1.5this page
- Athletic Club vs. Villarreal CF: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Athletic Club vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 2.5Over won
- Athletic Club vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 3.5Under won
- Athletic Club vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Athletic Club (-1.5)Villarreal CF won
- Spread: Villarreal CF (-1.5)Athletic Club won
- Spread: Villarreal CF (-2.5)Athletic Club won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.