Australian A League · resolved market
Melbourne City FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb5e68eec24d8ec197cac820bbea1bec026a8458058ed9f239654330b4865edf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,418
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,627
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,418 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 22c | 1,511$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.85 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 78c | 1,283$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.25 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 72cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 23c | 1,202$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.69 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49a1…41cbbacked Over | 77c | 657.14$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.14 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 26c | 305.07$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.59 | 305 | 36.1%110 W · 195 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 68c | 294.6$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.5 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -6.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b2…c24ebacked Over | 74c | 292.95$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.17 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e1…1b07backed Over | 78c | 192.31$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.31 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf566…bbb9backed Over | 77c | 189.24$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d59…811bbacked Under | 9c | 154$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 20c | 148.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa9…72dbbacked Over | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c5…0d72backed Under | 24c | 125.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.22 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 15c | 101.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Under | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe579…ba5ebacked Over | 69c | 80$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +84%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8e52…2320backed Over | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 38 | 78.9%30 W · 8 L | +8.8wins | +0.23per pick | 56cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Over | 75c | 68$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96ae…4c9cbacked Over | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 69c | 60.87$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 23c | 58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 247 | 32.4%80 W · 167 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 23c | 56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -7.5wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 76c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 324 | 53.1%172 W · 152 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…2134backed Over | 71c | 18.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 140 | 60.7%85 W · 55 L | +19.7wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +31%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 76c | 15.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 101 | 60.4%61 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Melbourne City FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Melbourne City FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Melbourne City FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Melbourne City FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Melbourne City FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.