Asian League · resolved market
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-01-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb688e9cfed77fbbc5293482dc1741598cda5fd0172cfc3fe1bb7fcf5b054b6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $86,519
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $117,006
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $86,519 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 14c | 19,542$2,738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,738.34 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…68a8backed No | 20c | 5,793$1,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,158.51 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -4.0wins | -0.31per pick | 38cpaid | -89.3%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes | 80c | 5,000$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 17c | 4,221$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.38 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 11c | 4,197$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.53 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 80c | 945.65$757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.13 | 275 | 40.7%112 W · 163 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 20c | 907.78$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.78 | 794 | 35.1%279 W · 515 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…1091backed No | 18c | 800.34$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.8 | 138 | 21%29 W · 109 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x478a…2deabacked Yes | 76c | 765$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.6 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked Yes | 75c | 682$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.86 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 13c | 635.82$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.92 | 531 | 48.8%259 W · 272 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 267 | 49.4%132 W · 135 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 79c | 235$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.78 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed No | 5c | 206$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.52 | 1,028 | 41.7%429 W · 599 L | -31.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Yes | 77c | 174$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.02 | 138 | 55.8%77 W · 61 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c22…70a0backed Yes | 80c | 153.75$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked No | 21c | 149.35$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.06 | 299 | 17.4%52 W · 247 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd851…9305backed No | 22c | 146$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked No | 19c | 140$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 150 | 35.3%53 W · 97 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Yes | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 120 | 74.2%89 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked No | 19c | 131.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 89 | 30.3%27 W · 62 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4417…01eebacked Yes | 73c | 130$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +102.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3138…b523backed Yes | 80c | 125.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb86d…92f7backed Yes | 80c | 125.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8a…7fd4backed Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 69cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71d…3f27backed Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72e6…7bf4backed Yes | 76c | 120$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 201 | 32.3%65 W · 136 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x176e…8f96backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed No | 15c | 96.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 127 | 50.4%64 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked No | 21c | 84.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed No | 13c | 79.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | -10.2wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed No | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 190 | 48.4%92 W · 98 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2064…0ab1backed Yes | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8024…9ee8backed Yes | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc840…0650backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee7…6760backed Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…a35bbacked No | 22c | 47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bb…d0d6backed Yes | 78c | 33.51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Yes | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 114 | 58.8%67 W · 47 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5699…418dbacked Yes | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 19 | 84.2%16 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 67cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef9…b5bfbacked Yes | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked Yes | 80c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4182…ae54backed Yes | 78c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b3…27babacked Yes | 78c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3add…e482backed Yes | 78c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9a…0e96backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73a3…dac6backed Yes | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0a…299cbacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Yes | 79c | 17.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 67 | 86.6%58 W · 9 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 77cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5d…e5bfbacked Yes | 78c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x888b…8f3fbacked Yes | 78c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbcf…1b69backed Yes | 77c | 15.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-01-04?this page
- Will Damac Saudi Club vs. Al Hilal Saudi Club end in a draw?No won
- Will Damac Saudi Club win on 2026-01-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.