MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb6af32bd476876a056350976b9bf2a8cf2d68a6e9c9c90b4b3aa45f0c1108ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,171
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,195
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,171 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa974…ef79backed No | 56c | 5,000$2,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,200 | 220 | 47.7%105 W · 115 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Yes | 44c | 2,689$1,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,182.95 | 233 | 51.1%119 W · 114 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Yes | 44c | 1,933$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850.43 | 246 | 51.6%127 W · 119 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Yes | 43c | 436.48$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.67 | 1,301 | 50.2%653 W · 648 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Yes | 43c | 364.91$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.91 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…5d07backed No | 57c | 341.82$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.98 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36ed…4a93backed Yes | 44c | 338.24$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.83 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8180…208bbacked Yes | 46c | 285.44$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.3 | 181 | 51.4%93 W · 88 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5741…fb99backed No | 56c | 192.98$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.91 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 19c | 153.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 1,728 | 50.4%871 W · 857 L | +57.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed No | 56c | 132$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.08 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…271bbacked No | 57c | 97.42$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.89 | 132 | 48.5%64 W · 68 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea5d…d375backed No | 55c | 96.54$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.01 | 122 | 48.4%59 W · 63 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2513…91fbbacked Yes | 44c | 71.88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.63 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 44c | 71.3$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Yes | 44c | 68.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x660f…ec30backed No | 71c | 67.15$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbeda…8befbacked No | 53c | 65.87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.64 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +89.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f1…a73dbacked Yes | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Yes | 45c | 59.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08f1…705cbacked No | 52c | 58.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.97 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Yes | 43c | 57.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked No | 56c | 49.38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 238 | 54.2%129 W · 109 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed No | 56c | 43.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 304 | 46.4%141 W · 163 L | -25.6wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7810…b011backed No | 55c | 41.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x921f…263cbacked No | 57c | 35.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 66cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 45c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 950 | 41.5%394 W · 556 L | -48.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5a…59b9backed Yes | 46c | 30.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgersthis page
- New York Mets vs. Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers won
- New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.