Champions League · resolved market
FC Bayern München leading at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb8ded92e0c41be105c9e0687e3a8ecbdfcaac290f2103828203d6382712cee2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,845
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,235
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,845 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 73c | 2,336$1,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.11 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…3196backed Yes | 34c | 2,012$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 66c | 1,593$1,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.88 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd8…d98dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked No | 78c | 983.92$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.68 | 92 | 62%57 W · 35 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Yes | 31c | 880.03$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.79 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e15…8ea4backed Yes | 33c | 851.29$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.29 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d22…4b50backed Yes | 32c | 603.28$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.05 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed No | 70c | 507.42$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.37 | 114 | 50.9%58 W · 56 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53f4…1837backed Yes | 15c | 493.5$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 32c | 440.61$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.78 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 67c | 399.98$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.99 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 67c | 376$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.65 | 607 | 48.4%294 W · 313 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…de1ebacked Yes | 33c | 304.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Yes | 35c | 297.52$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.8 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0e…abd1backed Yes | 34c | 296.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 61c | 259$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.99 | 382 | 53.9%206 W · 176 L | +21.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked No | 66c | 255.51$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.57 | 153 | 49.7%76 W · 77 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf1…d577backed Yes | 33c | 243.82$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d2…7ad6backed Yes | 41c | 239$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -36%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7eb…bfbfbacked Yes | 32c | 199.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 67c | 186$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.38 | 403 | 50.9%205 W · 198 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 67c | 186$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.38 | 502 | 47.2%237 W · 265 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…b1eebacked Yes | 32c | 154.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 68c | 152.05$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.66 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…1b97backed Yes | 13c | 144.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 106 | 28.3%30 W · 76 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36d4…8c7fbacked Yes | 14c | 138.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e85…328bbacked Yes | 9c | 135.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +109.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65ca…41ddbacked Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 68c | 109.8$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.08 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9f48…0e01backed Yes | 28c | 103.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…4658backed Yes | 79c | 101.27$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4920…5d22backed Yes | 31c | 100.22$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7de…2b59backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 26cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 32c | 93.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 142 | 20.4%29 W · 113 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c67…73e5backed Yes | 13c | 84.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +266.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed No | 68c | 83.71$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1d…685ebacked Yes | 78c | 78.16$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…def7backed Yes | 33c | 67.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9208…c203backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa16…4283backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8510…e41ebacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa91b…bc48backed Yes | 29c | 56.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb4c…ad1bbacked Yes | 33c | 54.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1d…43debacked No | 67c | 52.48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe906…aa69backed Yes | 32c | 48.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Yes | 32c | 46.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd19…6910backed Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1521…ae21backed No | 67c | 44.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.22per pick | 59cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9332…a3dbbacked Yes | 33c | 44.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb5…63c4backed Yes | 33c | 40.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 67c | 40.07$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 650 | 50.2%326 W · 324 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d49…2be3backed Yes | 32c | 34.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd3…f743backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f1d…009abacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3a…9993backed No | 69c | 30.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 83 | 59%49 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e42…f5c5backed No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed No | 68c | 29.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 68c | 21.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed No | 72c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47cc…6aa7backed No | 70c | 14.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Bayern München leading at halftime?this page
- Paris Saint-Germain FC leading at halftime?Yes won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: Draw at halftime?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.