Champions League · resolved market
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: Draw at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x985da98508a6e0f8c65caf698c0df538dc6c8bb26075d99fe4bc555e1fabef21
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,763
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,322
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,763 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked No | 47c | 866.14$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.46 | 92 | 62%57 W · 35 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 60c | 731.55$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.22 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…0551backed Yes | 2c | 662.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 38cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46e6…d4cdbacked No | 63c | 537.6$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.21 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…5209backed Yes | 65c | 500$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.45 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86a6…1b3ebacked Yes | 68c | 472.21$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.2 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -6.8wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 55c | 380.94$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.77 | 245 | 45.3%111 W · 134 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 63c | 376.99$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d87…abeabacked Yes | 37c | 351.35$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7521…9997backed Yes | 37c | 320$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x816a…8df4backed Yes | 37c | 274.84$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.31 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -66%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…83afbacked Yes | 36c | 251$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0788…c287backed No | 64c | 249.97$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.99 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaee4…c3b9backed Yes | 42c | 236.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 18c | 234.72$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.16 | 601 | 36.9%222 W · 379 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4520…e501backed Yes | 44c | 228.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 64c | 226.86$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.67 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa1…a420backed Yes | 23c | 213.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -50%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 63c | 183.41$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.86 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 63c | 158.01$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.97 | 607 | 48.4%294 W · 313 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53f4…1837backed Yes | 24c | 145.83$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a0…108cbacked Yes | 37c | 123.42$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0f…c18cbacked Yes | 37c | 113.51$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…37dfbacked Yes | 35c | 105.95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…ff34backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb7…75f2backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5258…4f34backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe999…199bbacked Yes | 35c | 81.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc4…0fd1backed Yes | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 25c | 79.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.28 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9605…a2c4backed Yes | 37c | 75.59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdae…5ea2backed Yes | 36c | 73.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd19…6910backed Yes | 37c | 72.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95cd…ef5ebacked No | 66c | 71.21$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.21 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x125c…f50abacked Yes | 36c | 68.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a30…b094backed Yes | 38c | 52.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed No | 61c | 48.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.93 | 114 | 50.9%58 W · 56 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…fe16backed Yes | 36c | 41.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2689…5f42backed Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1d…43debacked No | 64c | 31.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0879…52fabacked No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed No | 64c | 30.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…2f83backed Yes | 36c | 29.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 63c | 27.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 650 | 50.2%326 W · 324 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: Draw at halftime?this page
- FC Bayern München leading at halftime?No won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC leading at halftime?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.