MLB · resolved market
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb8e8abf9e9cdb94212b0ef3f9a25c1f4849c751ec57d493d5f202915f9a944a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,395
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,852
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,395 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Over | 36c | 21,904$7,885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,885.5 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 64c | 12,157$7,780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,377.39 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 64c | 5,307$3,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,906.98 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 72c | 1,953$1,401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 36c | 850$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…7f85backed Under | 74c | 674.6$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.6 | 32 | 81.3%26 W · 6 L | +5.7wins | +0.18per pick | 64cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 28c | 580.16$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.83 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Under | 65c | 526.89$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.68 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Under | 64c | 468.75$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.75 | 321 | 66.4%213 W · 108 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 4c | 406$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 64c | 364.88$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.36 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 20c | 364.69$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.94 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 64c | 359.63$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.47 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 64c | 323$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.28 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 36c | 305.58$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…44d6backed Under | 63c | 271.46$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.44 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 64c | 229$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.44 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x460c…b5b5backed Under | 64c | 171.92$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.89 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 64c | 128.63$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.31 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked Over | 24c | 98.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 153 | 40.5%62 W · 91 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 31c | 98.58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2c…00b5backed Over | 25c | 79.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Under | 64c | 74.53$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.83 | 445 | 53.5%238 W · 207 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe392…d868backed Under | 64c | 71.86$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.87 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Under | 64c | 69.92$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.17 | 215 | 47%101 W · 114 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Over | 31c | 63.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 60c | 54.15$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Under | 64c | 51.56$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 314 | 46.8%147 W · 167 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Over | 33c | 50.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Under | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Under | 64c | 48.22$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1821…26a0backed Under | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4473…f873backed Over | 37c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a55…a82abacked Under | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Under | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 150 | 52.7%79 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 34c | 35.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 37c | 34.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 64c | 32.11$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90f…a908backed Under | 64c | 26.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 97 | 55.7%54 W · 43 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e1…6935backed Under | 64c | 24.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcb…65fcbacked Under | 63c | 24.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 62c | 24.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f5…1b50backed Under | 64c | 23.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Under | 64c | 22.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x829a…a748backed Under | 64c | 20.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 187 | 51.9%97 W · 90 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Under | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed Under | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 61c | 18.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York YankeesNew York Yankees won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Yankees: O/U 1.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Yankees: O/U 2.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Yankees: O/U 4.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. New York YankeesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.