MLB · resolved market
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0c27a53563bd764ea33990fd12277c3754c5cb2f37bbe1dfc0a743560dbd124
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Yankeesof Atlanta Braves, New York Yankees
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,017
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,331
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,017 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Atlanta Braves | 37c | 3,161$1,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,180.12 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked New York Yankees | 38c | 2,151$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,331.15 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked New York Yankees | 57c | 865.57$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.54 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Atlanta Braves | 31c | 861.62$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.24 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed New York Yankees | 69c | 615$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.65 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked New York Yankees | 16c | 578$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.11 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x949e…20afbacked New York Yankees | 18c | 528.35$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.51 | 228 | 31.6%72 W · 156 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked New York Yankees | 61c | 506.54$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.42 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Yankees | 31c | 435.28$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.29 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Atlanta Braves | 31c | 354.87$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Atlanta Braves | 31c | 335.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.18 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed New York Yankees | 70c | 249.99$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Atlanta Braves | 32c | 205.28$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.69 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked New York Yankees | 61c | 158.83$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.29 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2515…16b9backed New York Yankees | 17c | 149.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.17 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked New York Yankees | 44c | 133.92$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked New York Yankees | 66c | 99.05$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.71 | 153 | 40.5%62 W · 91 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2c…00b5backed New York Yankees | 70c | 95.63$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.54 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked New York Yankees | 15c | 85.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.36 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Atlanta Braves | 47c | 81.03$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked New York Yankees | 66c | 80.85$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked New York Yankees | 43c | 69.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.22 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Atlanta Braves | 27c | 68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424c…8580backed New York Yankees | 18c | 65.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.44 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +4.4wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Atlanta Braves | 27c | 56.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa278…3369backed Atlanta Braves | 78c | 51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.53 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Atlanta Braves | 30c | 47.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Atlanta Braves | 30c | 42.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0617…08d9backed Atlanta Braves | 25c | 41.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked New York Yankees | 43c | 39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Atlanta Braves | 27c | 38.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07f1…3b8ebacked New York Yankees | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed New York Yankees | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Atlanta Braves | 79c | 26.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed New York Yankees | 70c | 25.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed New York Yankees | 69c | 21.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 143 | 36.4%52 W · 91 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Atlanta Braves | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York YankeesNew York Yankees won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Yankees: O/U 1.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Yankees: O/U 2.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Yankees: O/U 4.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. New York YankeesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.