MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd30db75ebb543d4342ad3792ecf48ade8e6947ec8e2b1474a45bee7cdb57f6a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Bravesof New York Yankees, Atlanta Braves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,444
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,964
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,444 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked New York Yankees | 33c | 6,449$2,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,124.44 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Atlanta Braves | 67c | 5,297$3,536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,761.29 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Yankees | 30c | 4,299$1,291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,290.71 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Atlanta Braves | 72c | 2,706$1,948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.68 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Atlanta Braves | 72c | 805.09$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.43 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed New York Yankees | 39c | 611$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.29 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Atlanta Braves | 70c | 504.22$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.6 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed New York Yankees | 12c | 473.33$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed New York Yankees | 15c | 327.53$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.13 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Atlanta Braves | 69c | 316.82$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.77 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed New York Yankees | 38c | 250$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed New York Yankees | 37c | 217.27$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.39 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed New York Yankees | 40c | 180$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Atlanta Braves | 67c | 179.92$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.97 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Atlanta Braves | 72c | 135.3$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.88 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked New York Yankees | 11c | 111.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 292 | 50.7%148 W · 144 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Yankees | 38c | 110.51$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.04 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Atlanta Braves | 64c | 109.53$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.53 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Atlanta Braves | 62c | 105.71$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.17 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked New York Yankees | 39c | 104.06$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.52 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed New York Yankees | 36c | 87.53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked New York Yankees | 15c | 84.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Atlanta Braves | 62c | 82.52$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked New York Yankees | 33c | 76.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 153 | 40.5%62 W · 91 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked New York Yankees | 39c | 72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Atlanta Braves | 61c | 72$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2c…00b5backed Atlanta Braves | 62c | 69.04$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.56 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Atlanta Braves | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Atlanta Braves | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Atlanta Braves | 80c | 59.69$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Atlanta Braves | 63c | 56.32$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked New York Yankees | 37c | 56.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 459 | 52.9%243 W · 216 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed New York Yankees | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Atlanta Braves | 78c | 50.19$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed New York Yankees | 38c | 44.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed New York Yankees | 33c | 36.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 314 | 46.8%147 W · 167 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Atlanta Braves | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 312 | 50%156 W · 156 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed New York Yankees | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 223 | 52.5%117 W · 106 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed New York Yankees | 38c | 29.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Atlanta Braves | 62c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd691…fcc6backed New York Yankees | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Atlanta Braves | 77c | 24.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 445 | 53.5%238 W · 207 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc020…5edbbacked Atlanta Braves | 61c | 22.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 229 | 54.6%125 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Atlanta Braves | 63c | 16.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41c8…424fbacked Atlanta Braves | 73c | 13.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 203 | 62.6%127 W · 76 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York YankeesNew York Yankees won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Yankees: O/U 1.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Yankees: O/U 2.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Yankees: O/U 4.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. New York YankeesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.