MLB · resolved market
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0a0259424c38c52961e807894ab39aafe3be8cfc6de4fce74a51c6bd10e7a7e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,753
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,686
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,753 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 58c | 14,475$8,401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,074.21 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Over | 45c | 14,185$6,383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,383.07 | 444 | 46.8%208 W · 236 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 54c | 7,685$4,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,535.09 | 1,414 | 49.5%700 W · 714 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 46c | 6,812$3,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,133.67 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 36c | 6,070$2,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,201.67 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 68c | 3,799$2,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,208.73 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Under | 56c | 1,316$731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.55 | 445 | 53.5%238 W · 207 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d26…ca0ebacked Under | 55c | 1,250$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.5 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 66c | 932$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.88 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 71c | 895.35$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.95 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 31c | 785.5$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.46 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 21c | 604$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.62 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 6c | 491.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 25c | 390.03$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.51 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 45c | 373$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.85 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 45c | 358.01$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.1 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 45c | 343.78$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.7 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 45c | 340.62$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.28 | 878 | 50.5%443 W · 435 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 55c | 318$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.1 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 46c | 304.89$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.16 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Under | 66c | 277.08$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.21 | 508 | 56.9%289 W · 219 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3255…ffb9backed Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 181 | 53.6%97 W · 84 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Over | 46c | 200.87$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.4 | 235 | 48.9%115 W · 120 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Under | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 55c | 127.36$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.31 | 527 | 52.2%275 W · 252 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 46c | 109$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.14 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…ff44backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 264 | 44.3%117 W · 147 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked Over | 29c | 98.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 153 | 40.5%62 W · 91 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2c…00b5backed Over | 43c | 98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.48 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 66c | 93.19$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 1,240 | 58.1%721 W · 519 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Under | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 1,201 | 49.1%590 W · 611 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Under | 66c | 46.6$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 583 | 58.5%341 W · 242 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 58c | 36.66$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 1,278 | 57%728 W · 550 L | +33.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Over | 46c | 30.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 2,044 | 39.5%808 W · 1,236 L | -24.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 45c | 24.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 69c | 19.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 69c | 15.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York YankeesNew York Yankees won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Yankees: O/U 1.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Yankees: O/U 2.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Yankees: O/U 4.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. New York YankeesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.