La Liga · resolved market
Spread: Villarreal CF (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb8f603f960bba0004980331d3870672018671874a640c40f507ec2423cd4081
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Deportivo Alavésof Villarreal CF, Deportivo Alavés
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,441
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,043
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,441 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x60c1…0438backed Villarreal CF | 20c | 15,314$3,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,062.85 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x800a…0b4dbacked Villarreal CF | 18c | 2,544$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.86 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x851b…961ebacked Villarreal CF | 20c | 2,500$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -55%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2970…e1c9backed Deportivo Alavés | 80c | 1,240$992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Deportivo Alavés | 80c | 478.96$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.12 | 2,394 | 48.4%1,159 W · 1,235 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Villarreal CF | 17c | 478.23$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.3 | 326 | 35.3%115 W · 211 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Villarreal CF | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 194 | 29.9%58 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Villarreal CF | 19c | 328.08$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 4,856 | 47%2,282 W · 2,574 L | -17.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Villarreal CF | 20c | 315.43$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.09 | 198 | 47.5%94 W · 104 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd786…59b8backed Villarreal CF | 11c | 298.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…362bbacked Villarreal CF | 12c | 298.89$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.92 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x018e…5c3dbacked Villarreal CF | 20c | 255$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Villarreal CF | 5c | 225.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 678 | 39.2%266 W · 412 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Deportivo Alavés | 79c | 212$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked Deportivo Alavés | 80c | 126.01$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 47 | 80.9%38 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Deportivo Alavés | 80c | 66.33$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 90 | 71.1%64 W · 26 L | +10.1wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +13%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Deportivo Alavés | 80c | 61$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 209 | 42.6%89 W · 120 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Villarreal CF | 21c | 50.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 335 | 31.3%105 W · 230 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed Deportivo Alavés | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dd…490bbacked Deportivo Alavés | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 70cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Deportivo Alavés | 79c | 20.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 1,658 | 51.7%858 W · 800 L | -6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Deportivo Alavés | 79c | 17.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 743 | 50.2%373 W · 370 L | +18.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Villarreal CF (-1.5)this page
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Villarreal CF: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Villarreal CF: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Villarreal CF: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Villarreal CF: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Villarreal CF: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Villarreal CF: Deportivo Alavés O/U 1.5Under won
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Villarreal CF: Deportivo Alavés O/U 2.5Under won
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 0.5Over won
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 1.5Under won
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 2.5Under won
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 3.5Under won
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 4.5Under won
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 5.5Under won
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Villarreal CF: Villarreal CF 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Villarreal CF: Villarreal CF O/U 0.5Under won
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Villarreal CF: Villarreal CF O/U 1.5Under won
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Villarreal CF: Villarreal CF O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Deportivo Alavés (-1.5)Villarreal CF won
- Spread: Deportivo Alavés (-2.5)Villarreal CF won
- Spread: Villarreal CF (-2.5)Deportivo Alavés won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.