La Liga · resolved market
Deportivo Alavés vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ec5e5c26226cc5f926e7eb5950de80f2c03a879a3d8c5800eab36bff130dd77
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,512
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,853
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,512 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 18c | 8,401$1,505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,505.26 | 924 | 43%397 W · 527 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e63…0857backed Over | 2c | 4,201$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.87 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Over | 20c | 3,473$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.58 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Under | 70c | 2,860$2,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$857.99 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3a…e974backed Under | 69c | 1,480$1,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.58 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 10c | 1,480$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.33 | 326 | 35.3%115 W · 211 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 30c | 780.7$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.21 | 1,104 | 48.5%535 W · 569 L | +21.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…8aedbacked Over | 4c | 764.48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 70c | 712.38$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.71 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 20c | 666.36$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.05 | 483 | 38.3%185 W · 298 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Over | 8c | 391.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.28 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ddd…8011backed Over | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 30c | 219.14$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.74 | 724 | 55.8%404 W · 320 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…e7debacked Over | 23c | 215.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a08…882dbacked Under | 70c | 214.29$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf625…b7c7backed Under | 70c | 214.29$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.29 | 15 | 93.3%14 W · 1 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 69cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc800…4117backed Under | 77c | 174$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.43 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 32c | 158$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.56 | 891 | 39.8%355 W · 536 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 10c | 151.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 510 | 48.6%248 W · 262 L | +14.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Over | 32c | 148$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.36 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb4…0060backed Under | 70c | 142.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfb…2ac5backed Under | 79c | 138.08$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 66cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb697…5d0cbacked Over | 31c | 122.58$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x162c…6c47backed Under | 70c | 61.28$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 22c | 59.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 124 | 46%57 W · 67 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 32c | 48.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 621 | 54.4%338 W · 283 L | +28.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 30c | 42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,658 | 51.7%858 W · 800 L | -6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 30c | 36.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 120 | 37.5%45 W · 75 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf2…ac54backed Under | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 3.5this page
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Villarreal CF: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Villarreal CF: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Villarreal CF: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Villarreal CF: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Villarreal CF: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Villarreal CF: Deportivo Alavés O/U 1.5Under won
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Villarreal CF: Deportivo Alavés O/U 2.5Under won
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 0.5Over won
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 1.5Under won
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 2.5Under won
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 4.5Under won
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 5.5Under won
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Villarreal CF: Villarreal CF 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Villarreal CF: Villarreal CF O/U 0.5Under won
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Villarreal CF: Villarreal CF O/U 1.5Under won
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Villarreal CF: Villarreal CF O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Deportivo Alavés (-1.5)Villarreal CF won
- Spread: Deportivo Alavés (-2.5)Villarreal CF won
- Spread: Villarreal CF (-1.5)Deportivo Alavés won
- Spread: Villarreal CF (-2.5)Deportivo Alavés won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.