La Liga · resolved market
Spread: Deportivo Alavés (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6072be29668b5251932e2f7dae843c6b758321c7aa785a44e8f03343a171adb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Villarreal CFof Deportivo Alavés, Villarreal CF
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,334
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,787
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,334 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Deportivo Alavés | 18c | 6,244$1,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,127.73 | 924 | 43%397 W · 527 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Deportivo Alavés | 12c | 3,609$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.64 | 3,571 | 42.6%1,522 W · 2,049 L | +26.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Deportivo Alavés | 12c | 3,110$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.62 | 678 | 39.2%266 W · 412 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Deportivo Alavés | 20c | 1,371$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.57 | 1,187 | 32.4%385 W · 802 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Deportivo Alavés | 14c | 777.3$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.92 | 381 | 44.9%171 W · 210 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3a…e974backed Villarreal CF | 78c | 531.57$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.95 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Deportivo Alavés | 15c | 380.76$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.11 | 242 | 59.5%144 W · 98 L | +19.2wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Deportivo Alavés | 12c | 332.38$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 4,856 | 47%2,282 W · 2,574 L | -17.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…b0a7backed Deportivo Alavés | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Deportivo Alavés | 15c | 247.89$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.93 | 483 | 38.3%185 W · 298 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Deportivo Alavés | 6c | 215.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 647 | 32.3%209 W · 438 L | -13.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Deportivo Alavés | 13c | 193$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 510 | 48.6%248 W · 262 L | +14.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a35…2580backed Deportivo Alavés | 24c | 183$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.92 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…d0f0backed Deportivo Alavés | 10c | 150.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Deportivo Alavés | 16c | 137.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Deportivo Alavés | 15c | 132.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 335 | 31.3%105 W · 230 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Deportivo Alavés | 12c | 130.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 1,466 | 45%659 W · 807 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Deportivo Alavés (-1.5)this page
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Villarreal CF: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Villarreal CF: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Villarreal CF: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Villarreal CF: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Villarreal CF: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Villarreal CF: Deportivo Alavés O/U 1.5Under won
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Villarreal CF: Deportivo Alavés O/U 2.5Under won
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 0.5Over won
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 1.5Under won
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 2.5Under won
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 3.5Under won
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 4.5Under won
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 5.5Under won
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Villarreal CF: Villarreal CF 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Villarreal CF: Villarreal CF O/U 0.5Under won
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Villarreal CF: Villarreal CF O/U 1.5Under won
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Villarreal CF: Villarreal CF O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Deportivo Alavés (-2.5)Villarreal CF won
- Spread: Villarreal CF (-1.5)Deportivo Alavés won
- Spread: Villarreal CF (-2.5)Deportivo Alavés won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.