MLB · resolved market
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfba3396ec88a0f95a154eb724fd3c4d4d71a72792106f45693ed4ba3bfa9b048
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,457
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,141
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,457 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 1c | 3,038$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 35c | 2,969$1,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,036.19 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 65c | 2,673$1,737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$936.11 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73ff…0facbacked Over | 65c | 1,006$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.64 | 125 | 75.2%94 W · 31 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 34c | 731.65$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.45 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 37c | 598.98$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.09 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed Over | 66c | 451.94$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.94 | 660 | 50.2%331 W · 329 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 34c | 434.99$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.95 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a03…4066backed Over | 64c | 307.81$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.81 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +4.5wins | +0.32per pick | 53cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 35c | 225$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.75 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…54b9backed Over | 65c | 192$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 187 | 41.2%77 W · 110 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x951a…8c9dbacked Under | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 80c | 90$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 16c | 83.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa89…ccd2backed Over | 64c | 81.48$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.48 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…cefbbacked Over | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 509 | 62.9%320 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 32c | 35.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 64c | 20.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red SoxBaltimore Orioles won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 13.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-6.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-7.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.