TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-7.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Boston Red Soxof Baltimore Orioles, Boston Red Sox
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,861
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,852

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,861 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7634…600dbacked Boston Red Sox57c16,000$9,040 inWon+$6,959.9860350.1%302 W · 301 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Baltimore Orioles43c14,855$6,441 inLost-$6,441.418,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5e2f…f9babacked Baltimore Orioles43c466.57$201 inLost-$201.2872655.4%402 W · 324 L+40.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b95…5733backed Baltimore Orioles44c194.96$85 inLost-$85.1121055.2%116 W · 94 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Boston Red Sox67c146.98$99 inWon+$48.18,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Baltimore Orioles43c121.05$52 inLost-$52.13,45751.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L+108.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Baltimore Orioles44c78.75$35 inLost-$34.6570154.2%380 W · 321 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3894…decfbacked Baltimore Orioles49c77.15$38 inLost-$37.7837551.2%192 W · 183 L-0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc85…aa54backed Baltimore Orioles43c76.29$33 inLost-$32.824243%104 W · 138 L-12.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5de7…5417backed Baltimore Orioles37c53.71$20 inLost-$19.8710945.9%50 W · 59 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61f1…7aefbacked Baltimore Orioles52c53.28$28 inLost-$27.7139953.6%214 W · 185 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Boston Red Sox68c49$33 inWon+$15.684,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Boston Red Sox38c43.19$16 inWon+$26.7412,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Boston Red Sox61c42.78$26 inWon+$16.84,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8263…e0f1backed Baltimore Orioles42c41.69$18 inLost-$17.5434754.8%190 W · 157 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x000a…6cf7backed Baltimore Orioles43c38.4$17 inLost-$16.5125260.7%153 W · 99 L+17.1wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+9.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb7a8…9c50backed Baltimore Orioles52c38.26$20 inLost-$19.96746.3%31 W · 36 L-6.0wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-13.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xdc1c…debbbacked Baltimore Orioles43c25$11 inLost-$10.858940.4%36 W · 53 L-6.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-18.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.