MLB · resolved market
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7eb1f71f3b84858b1ba3f450c7071720cb9918b7848d32897519d18d6941e047
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baltimore Oriolesof Boston Red Sox, Baltimore Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,038
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,286
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,038 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb85…152fbacked Boston Red Sox | 38c | 13,158$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 172 | 48.3%83 W · 89 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 5,548$3,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,138.24 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Boston Red Sox | 39c | 4,919$1,902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,902.06 | 1,884 | 53%998 W · 886 L | +16.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 3,371$2,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,279.35 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 3,000$1,860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,140 | 241 | 50.6%122 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Boston Red Sox | 37c | 2,344$867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$867.23 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 1,643$1,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.34 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Boston Red Sox | 38c | 1,589$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.7 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cec…d241backed Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 1,587$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.3 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 1,079$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 1,060$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.71 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 800$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 705.99$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.89 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Baltimore Orioles | 78c | 606.86$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.95 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 519.61$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.36 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Boston Red Sox | 4c | 472$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 440$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.2 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Boston Red Sox | 38c | 394.73$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 963 | 49%472 W · 491 L | -39.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 386.33$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.99 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 375$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.25 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 279.01$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.1 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 180$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Boston Red Sox | 38c | 54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Boston Red Sox | 38c | 54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…9ce7backed Boston Red Sox | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Boston Red Sox | 37c | 51.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Boston Red Sox | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf9…3a59backed Boston Red Sox | 37c | 40.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Boston Red Sox | 37c | 40.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfae5…f940backed Boston Red Sox | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 816 | 51.8%423 W · 393 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Boston Red Sox | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 572 | 44.6%255 W · 317 L | -35.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 24.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,828 | 54.1%989 W · 839 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red SoxBaltimore Orioles won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 13.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-6.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-7.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.