MLB · resolved market
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5960543ef29b189811311d195baf6e958ae87fd183c989f8f5d0914de49cf6f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,811
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,814
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,811 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x354b…4744backed Over | 57c | 2,587$1,478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,108.59 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 44c | 2,496$1,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.28 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bec…07a8backed Over | 57c | 2,000$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860.01 | 249 | 46.2%115 W · 134 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 43c | 1,891$813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 55c | 1,413$777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.03 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 43c | 1,395$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.12 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Over | 57c | 1,053$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.63 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 43c | 558.13$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.56 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 43c | 530.05$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.98 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 32c | 504.23$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.22 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 57c | 500$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 64c | 443.62$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.5 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 76c | 394.73$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.74 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27fa…d8c4backed Under | 39c | 305.38$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 44c | 300$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.11 | 999 | 47.5%475 W · 524 L | -3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 46c | 283.99$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.47 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Under | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa39a…1246backed Over | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 282 | 58.5%165 W · 117 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 43c | 156$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.08 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…3824backed Over | 55c | 153.85$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.23 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 43c | 151.05$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.95 | 411 | 41.4%170 W · 241 L | -21.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66df…7ea5backed Over | 54c | 138.89$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.89 | 68 | 57.4%39 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…1639backed Under | 31c | 125.81$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 43c | 120$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 43c | 102.34$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.3 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 55c | 88.87$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.99 | 878 | 50.5%443 W · 435 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 24c | 84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 43c | 79.86$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 64c | 78.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab4…5a40backed Over | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 162 | 51.9%84 W · 78 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 54c | 66$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 1,884 | 53%998 W · 886 L | +16.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 46c | 60.51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.53 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Under | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 572 | 44.6%255 W · 317 L | -35.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x951a…8c9dbacked Under | 27c | 42.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3255…ffb9backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 181 | 53.6%97 W · 84 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Under | 44c | 35.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Over | 53c | 32.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 269 | 62.1%167 W · 102 L | +44.2wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcce1…7572backed Under | 50c | 29.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Under | 41c | 26.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 54c | 20.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red SoxBaltimore Orioles won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 13.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-6.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-7.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.