Olympics · resolved market
Men's Round of 16 - Switzerland vs. Italy
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbca142d8fed3a45e87421a0492a6cecb9b92324f59375198924678e70ec5084
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Switzerlandof Switzerland, Italy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $387,530
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $421,048
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $387,530 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb859…e244backed Italy | 8c | 90,022$6,802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,802.23 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Italy | 7c | 84,031$5,642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,641.88 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb68…a240backed Italy | 6c | 42,110$2,726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,726.32 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Italy | 7c | 20,362$1,422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,421.69 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Italy | 7c | 15,000$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8758…01e0backed Italy | 7c | 10,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33dd…ef8abacked Italy | 7c | 10,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Italy | 7c | 7,964$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0b…9672backed Italy | 7c | 7,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91fd…1cdebacked Italy | 7c | 7,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Italy | 0c | 5,228$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 244 | 8.2%20 W · 224 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Italy | 7c | 5,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd604…cb5fbacked Italy | 1c | 4,948$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65a4…c1d5backed Italy | 1c | 2,299$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Italy | 7c | 2,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a4…3117backed Italy | 1c | 1,960$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Italy | 7c | 1,111$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.77 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Italy | 1c | 1,010$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafce…c2f6backed Italy | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Italy | 2c | 683$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -4.9wins | -0.18per pick | 44cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Italy | 2c | 565.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b64…eaf4backed Italy | 3c | 541$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x985e…6894backed Italy | 8c | 502.25$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.11 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06b0…afd6backed Italy | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Italy | 7c | 428.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Italy | 6c | 272.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -33%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8666…a368backed Italy | 7c | 259.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Italy | 5c | 203.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba3…1aafbacked Italy | 7c | 171.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd454…b47fbacked Italy | 8c | 155.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Italy | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Italy | 8c | 126.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6be…43c9backed Italy | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.