Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 31°C on August 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbdda32f781dc6577e9fa7cfe3eb99302b0f058b11aa23cda2d6e4b98c6c23f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,587
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,001
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,587 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 22c | 636.71$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.96 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 20c | 464.79$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.92 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 7c | 365.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0324…01fbbacked Yes | 5c | 364.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 8c | 332$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 16c | 325.94$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.95 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 9c | 230.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 79c | 212.57$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.56 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 26c | 204.01$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.78 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…8ec5backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 153 | 34.6%53 W · 100 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked Yes | 9c | 197.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 8c | 194.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 72c | 187.18$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.53 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 21c | 179.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…07dfbacked Yes | 6c | 175.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 175.18$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.15 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes | 28c | 169.93$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.03 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 12c | 161.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes | 16c | 150$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 135$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 8c | 134.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 27c | 125.01$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb86…fb51backed Yes | 9c | 125$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 76c | 110.64$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.08 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef6…b2b9backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed Yes | 25c | 86.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacb7…2ebbbacked Yes | 13c | 83.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 72c | 75.61$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 79c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 77c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 27c | 39.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 73c | 36.92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xede4…1c40backed No | 75c | 36.65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 153 | 69.9%107 W · 46 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 79c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 77c | 33.83$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 78c | 32.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 77c | 30.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 74c | 30.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 80c | 27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 79c | 26.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x827d…b1f0backed No | 77c | 25.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 131 | 67.2%88 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 77c | 19.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 75c | 15.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 74c | 14.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 31°C on August 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 30°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 33°C on August 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 34°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 35°C or higher on August 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.