Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 33°C on August 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4bbc787b84a7b2691bdea4d3342113f6f2f56612874ab1a55a610de38adf7f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,442
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,528
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,442 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1ec7…12f7backed No | 1c | 1,484$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 26c | 1,009$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.2 | 217 | 36.4%79 W · 138 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f11…53b0backed Yes | 52c | 834.83$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.7 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 26c | 758.54$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.8 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5337…b0c7backed Yes | 28c | 486.53$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.27 | 77 | 15.6%12 W · 65 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +121.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 11c | 483.81$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.32 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…079dbacked No | 8c | 451.48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 100 | 36%36 W · 64 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 12c | 444.6$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.64 | 557 | 26%145 W · 412 L | -19.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 41c | 407.87$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.59 | 381 | 31%118 W · 263 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 26c | 406.28$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.48 | 401 | 42.4%170 W · 231 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 10c | 347.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.81 | 4,302 | 53.5%2,303 W · 1,999 L | +157.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 24c | 334$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.52 | 5,795 | 60%3,479 W · 2,316 L | -110.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 10c | 272.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 2,252 | 56.6%1,275 W · 977 L | +64.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 11c | 240.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 6,857 | 53.1%3,642 W · 3,215 L | +417.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 69c | 225.01$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.26 | 880 | 59.4%523 W · 357 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 222.19$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.66 | 4,435 | 65.2%2,891 W · 1,544 L | +18.7wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd132…d314backed No | 71c | 215.03$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.82 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 32c | 202.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139 | 183 | 30.1%55 W · 128 L | -12.2wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1d…aa8abacked No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 69c | 193.7$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.5 | 275 | 65.5%180 W · 95 L | +13.8wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x371b…8786backed Yes | 28c | 182.68$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.08 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 12c | 180.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 1,868 | 37.7%705 W · 1,163 L | +282.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x56ab…784ebacked Yes | 51c | 165.15$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.91 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.32per pick | 51cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 73c | 161.23$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.93 | 631 | 60.2%380 W · 251 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 57c | 154.97$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.78 | 2,180 | 57%1,243 W · 937 L | +73.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 10c | 152$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 2,335 | 20.6%480 W · 1,855 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 25c | 151.61$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.5 | 1,146 | 30.9%354 W · 792 L | -37.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 9c | 146.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 1,021 | 51.1%522 W · 499 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 142$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.29 | 5,201 | 49.9%2,595 W · 2,606 L | -161.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 15c | 141.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 4,377 | 53.8%2,357 W · 2,020 L | -17.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 139.86$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.66 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 20c | 139.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 2,267 | 57.4%1,301 W · 966 L | +72.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 135.03$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.11 | 9,885 | 45.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L | -302.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 135$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.85 | 3,821 | 61.1%2,336 W · 1,485 L | -35.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 18c | 129.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 23c | 126.29$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.97 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 34c | 119.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.23 | 2,237 | 49.3%1,102 W · 1,135 L | -10.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 75c | 116.49$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.93 | 4,905 | 53.4%2,621 W · 2,284 L | +33.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…4eedbacked Yes | 69c | 114.78$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.29 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed No | 12c | 101.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.33 | 359 | 18.9%68 W · 291 L | +19.0wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.8 | 3,782 | 65.8%2,489 W · 1,293 L | +32.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7183backed Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 65c | 91.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3,620 | 53.2%1,925 W · 1,695 L | +81.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 45c | 89.44$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.52 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 19c | 87.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 72c | 85$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7c…f811backed Yes | 69c | 76.71$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 64c | 72.81$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.43 | 2,230 | 56.9%1,269 W · 961 L | +64.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 46c | 70.66$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.12 | 289 | 42.9%124 W · 165 L | +25.0wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 70$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.64 | 5,478 | 56%3,069 W · 2,409 L | -123.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 73c | 70$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.43 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…f8efbacked Yes | 67c | 69.48$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…07dfbacked Yes | 68c | 61.88$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 69c | 61.74$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 2,208 | 59.2%1,307 W · 901 L | +111.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 72c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.15 | 3,111 | 61.7%1,921 W · 1,190 L | -31.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 59$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.26 | 4,616 | 58.3%2,689 W · 1,927 L | -114.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 55c | 55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 4,136 | 56.6%2,343 W · 1,793 L | +50.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked No | 22c | 54.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | -38.0wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 23c | 49.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 2,628 | 54%1,419 W · 1,209 L | -56.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 67c | 49.02$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 2,200 | 56%1,233 W · 967 L | +54.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 71c | 46.09$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 458 | 36.5%167 W · 291 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 76c | 45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 1,611 | 61.8%995 W · 616 L | +17.6wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 75c | 44.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 231 | 55.8%129 W · 102 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7135…4c0dbacked Yes | 30c | 39.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 69c | 34.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 1,124 | 55.4%623 W · 501 L | -29.9wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 5,161 | 68.3%3,525 W · 1,636 L | +71.4wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 73c | 30.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 760 | 26.7%203 W · 557 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…fccdbacked Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf444…8d4abacked No | 70c | 28.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 39c | 28.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 5,542 | 47.8%2,649 W · 2,893 L | +81.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 76c | 27.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 1,617 | 52.1%843 W · 774 L | -43.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 153 | 58.2%89 W · 64 L | -9.2wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 54c | 24.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 2,273 | 59.3%1,347 W · 926 L | +118.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 65c | 24.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 634 | 55.7%353 W · 281 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 76c | 22.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 72c | 21.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 2,415 | 57.9%1,399 W · 1,016 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 73c | 20.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 218 | 60.1%131 W · 87 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1,146 | 57.1%654 W · 492 L | -45.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 916 | 62.3%571 W · 345 L | -22.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d66…a545backed No | 67c | 18.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 114 | 69.3%79 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6430…af02backed Yes | 78c | 14.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.29 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…7f8abacked Yes | 73c | 14.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 33°C on August 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 30°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 31°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 34°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 35°C or higher on August 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.