TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 2?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$64,689
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$67,192

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,689 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes0c24,296$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.7228324.7%70 W · 213 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-22.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7353…b6c5backed Yes1c4,077$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9418347%86 W · 97 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes2c2,100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3534918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x79ad…4eedbacked Yes12c1,462$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.286845.6%31 W · 37 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-18.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe13b…6747backed Yes1c1,300$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.72548%12 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe605…914fbacked Yes14c1,042$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.2511438.6%44 W · 70 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes10c999.32$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.242,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes4c939.15$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.381,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No52c812.82$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.7438243.2%165 W · 217 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9418…e9f8backed Yes47c669.68$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.151,10830%332 W · 776 L-38.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes47c587$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.751,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x91f8…d951backed No55c415.74$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.745752.6%30 W · 27 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes5c406.88$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.822,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x61b9…07dfbacked Yes35c325.62$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.810447.1%49 W · 55 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No66c324.07$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.82,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes49c266.95$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.852,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No55c244.86$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.095,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes14c242.19$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9553925.6%138 W · 401 L-18.4wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-40.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c2f…07d3backed Yes45c220.95$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.43728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick50cpaid-45.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes11c218.22$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xa834…1c25backed No54c204.28$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.21,04834.5%362 W · 686 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed Yes45c200$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9017028.8%49 W · 121 L-12.9wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes7c194.5$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.763,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7831…a330backed Yes8c193.63$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.063327.3%9 W · 24 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e87…e5f1backed Yes16c184.21$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No54c183.97$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.074,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No53c183.44$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.953,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f11…53b0backed Yes45c167.96$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.585349.1%26 W · 27 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d3f…fde2backed No73c164.62$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.625054%27 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed Yes10c160$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9486847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6396…7183backed Yes38c139.4$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.410827.8%30 W · 78 L-9.5wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-31.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No54c135.33$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.133,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98d1…019abacked Yes46c129.51$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6025536.9%94 W · 161 L+17.3wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+24.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x567f…94b9backed Yes8c128$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2148919.2%94 W · 395 L-38.7wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes42c119.05$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020452%106 W · 98 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No59c118$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.725,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb86…fb51backed Yes12c117.78$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.743511.4%4 W · 31 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-42.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5daf…7d98backed Yes48c113.83$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554438.6%17 W · 27 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-2.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xefc9…1f0abacked Yes46c112.98$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.972646.2%12 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+17.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes29c112.46$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.15,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No62c105.35$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.664,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes48c102$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.962,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x215b…8ec5backed Yes47c100.98$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.4615334.6%53 W · 100 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+21.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x06da…af33backed Yes36c99.98$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9925332%81 W · 172 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes15c96.14$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8913959%82 W · 57 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed Yes15c90.88$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7440265.9%265 W · 137 L+31.7wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No63c89$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.25,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa047…4ffabacked No72c85.78$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.0376059.2%450 W · 310 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe92e…7cfcbacked No55c80.4$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.0154335%190 W · 353 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadb9…8326backed Yes25c79.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2014645.9%67 W · 79 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes16c79.33$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.726,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes28c78.07$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.982,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes45c74.53$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.547934.2%27 W · 52 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-30.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x56ab…784ebacked Yes20c72$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.711118.2%2 W · 9 L-3.6wins-0.32per pick51cpaid-68.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No55c70$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.23,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x017c…f8efbacked Yes46c69.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.197642.1%32 W · 44 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No57c69.15$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.951,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x738e…cc2cbacked No79c68.94$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.746894.1%64 W · 4 L+12.7wins+0.19per pick75cpaid+25.3%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xc2bc…1485backed Yes48c66.77$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.056346%29 W · 34 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x379a…4b1abacked No56c63.81$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.0642948%206 W · 223 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a2f…e889backed Yes17c63.6$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.622849.6%113 W · 115 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No78c63$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.844,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes45c61.33$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.352,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa747…bebcbacked No54c55.56$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.564463.6%28 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes34c55$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4844945.9%206 W · 243 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes29c54.29$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.662,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a5a…b6c6backed No63c54.27$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.087945.6%36 W · 43 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No72c53.66$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.271,28256.7%727 W · 555 L-28.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No52c51.52$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.731,27450.9%649 W · 625 L-35.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No57c46.9$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.114,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7aed…df39backed No60c46$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.5935063.1%221 W · 129 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No57c45$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.42,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No56c43.07$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.951,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0324…01fbbacked Yes47c41.74$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4240%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked Yes48c39.53$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.972,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c18…32c3backed No58c38.31$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.231,04362.9%656 W · 387 L-11.9wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No54c34.07$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.7212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65ce…6ff8backed Yes49c33$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1719345.6%88 W · 105 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes49c31.53$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.31,17454.9%644 W · 530 L+49.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x67ce…83a4backed Yes44c31.31$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.782245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No63c31.3$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.454,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No57c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.94,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No53c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.12,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7135…4c0dbacked Yes51c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.31747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+27.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes35c28.31$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.032,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a338backed No71c28.13$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1329037.9%110 W · 180 L+29.1wins+0.10per pick28cpaid+25.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2f04…425ebacked Yes47c27.85$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.09250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-28.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed Yes38c27.55$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.52,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x53e1…f420backed No54c27.15$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.492556%14 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed Yes39c27.02$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.592,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x914d…dd11backed Yes46c27$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4210246.1%47 W · 55 L-6.8wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb074…9fb3backed No61c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.7522454.5%122 W · 102 L+13.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a97…395bbacked No55c25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.333628.9%97 W · 239 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes51c24$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.243,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5219…7f31backed No49c22$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2235344.5%157 W · 196 L-18.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xae22…8794backed Yes50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1046232.9%152 W · 310 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No54c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.23,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03e1…e180backed No52c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.62751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+18.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee25…63ccbacked No53c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.420056.5%113 W · 87 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3bd3…af33backed No78c17.78$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.913748.6%18 W · 19 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-2.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.