NHL · resolved market
Utah vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbfa40ae6c4481130e27f10b84d8dbeacbef1652bc3317c45aeb20b2b44872f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,795
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,791
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,795 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Under | 56c | 3,485$1,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,535.37 | 168 | 43.5%73 W · 95 L | -14.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d43…bc5ebacked Over | 45c | 1,823$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820.43 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 43c | 1,517$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.39 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 46c | 319$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.31 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 54c | 249.99$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 346 | 53.2%184 W · 162 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Under | 54c | 201$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.48 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | +9.8wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 53c | 159.13$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.79 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb82d…5d1ebacked Under | 52c | 130$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Over | 43c | 120$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 583 | 46.5%271 W · 312 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed Under | 55c | 113$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.85 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Under | 54c | 69$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.74 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +11.1wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +49%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 45c | 66.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Under | 54c | 61$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9061…9510backed Under | 54c | 59$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a1…e6f5backed Under | 53c | 55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca65…6746backed Over | 48c | 46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2999…50bcbacked Over | 46c | 42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77ed…53f7backed Over | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x363a…b79ebacked Under | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ab…b38dbacked Over | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26fc…2286backed Over | 45c | 39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42bb…2138backed Over | 46c | 39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…5192backed Over | 48c | 37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50c1…6c6cbacked Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 137 | 43.1%59 W · 78 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2587…a117backed Under | 55c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 46c | 32.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb780…e7a2backed Over | 45c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdeaa…80cdbacked Over | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6e…148bbacked Over | 48c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b3…0d89backed Over | 46c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 46c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08a7…e161backed Over | 45c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa48…9062backed Over | 46c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Under | 54c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7399…fe96backed Over | 45c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…dcaabacked Over | 45c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x663b…e26cbacked Over | 46c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Utah vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5this page
- Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)Utah won
- Utah vs. AvalancheAvalanche won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.