Other European Leagues · resolved market
CD Nacional vs. FC Alverca: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc14b802670a0d98a4a55314b4d0ab7b5e38625369851b3acea81b208304b8d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,029
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,316
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,029 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 53c | 9,942$5,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,269.23 | 920 | 43.4%399 W · 521 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed Under | 47c | 3,367$1,583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,784.76 | 119 | 52.9%63 W · 56 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x374a…03edbacked Under | 47c | 3,000$1,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,589.98 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc95b…f819backed Over | 53c | 2,094$1,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,109.8 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…d584backed Under | 47c | 1,750$823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$927.5 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed Under | 47c | 1,500$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72d3…cbf2backed Over | 55c | 1,197$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.51 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…a8edbacked Over | 53c | 1,008$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.49 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +10.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2e…5b64backed Under | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed Under | 47c | 500$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 140 | 50%70 W · 70 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed Under | 47c | 500$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 94 | 57.4%54 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe75e…4b67backed Under | 47c | 499.99$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.99 | 85 | 54.1%46 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 53c | 460.78$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.31 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Under | 47c | 450$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.5 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 46c | 441.33$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.14 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…8cb5backed Under | 52c | 440.06$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.84 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 40c | 415.37$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.32 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…e297backed Under | 47c | 400$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b043backed Under | 47c | 400$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8b…9e2dbacked Under | 47c | 400$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 60c | 342.35$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.27 | 1,282 | 50.2%644 W · 638 L | -25.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked Under | 47c | 250$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.5 | 104 | 58.7%61 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…6edbbacked Under | 47c | 250$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.5 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaffe…7140backed Over | 53c | 212.79$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.78 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 53c | 207.73$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.1 | 409 | 58.9%241 W · 168 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 53c | 207.73$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.1 | 306 | 56.2%172 W · 134 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dca…a234backed Over | 14c | 172.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…a28abacked Over | 53c | 159.34$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.45 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed Under | 47c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 82 | 58.5%48 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04a5…d093backed Under | 47c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63c5…1ecbbacked Under | 52c | 145.68$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.93 | 187 | 49.7%93 W · 94 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 48c | 121.75$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.44 | 1,711 | 48.3%827 W · 884 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 33c | 114.73$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 2,012 | 35.5%714 W · 1,298 L | -27.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 53c | 102.83$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.81 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd59…2e2fbacked Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 48c | 96.49$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.32 | 938 | 45.4%426 W · 512 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b35…7e1dbacked Under | 47c | 75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Under | 47c | 75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Under | 47c | 75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 42c | 62.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Under | 64c | 59.62$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 210 | 36.7%77 W · 133 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 53c | 45.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 278 | 64.4%179 W · 99 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3e…7857backed Over | 53c | 45.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Under | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 100 | 52%52 W · 48 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 53c | 37.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 546 | 50.4%275 W · 271 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 165 | 51.5%85 W · 80 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 48c | 28.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 2,640 | 35.7%942 W · 1,698 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Under | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 142 | 57.7%82 W · 60 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Under | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…0741backed Under | 50c | 21.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…a848backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CD Nacional vs. FC Alverca: O/U 2.5this page
- CD Nacional vs. FC Alverca: O/U 1.5Under won
- CD Nacional vs. FC Alverca: O/U 3.5Under won
- CD Nacional vs. FC Alverca: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.