Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc92cb86e959503da3e28d210c91c8fd458e1500f9705700524bee95334a7eb1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,654
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,974
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,654 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5024…3007backed Yes | 23c | 1,527$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.87 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffb…a648backed Yes | 1c | 1,112$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 6c | 670.93$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.45 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 16c | 577.72$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.77 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b9…1e0ebacked Yes | 9c | 481.85$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 3c | 476.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9391…bd28backed Yes | 4c | 476.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 3c | 416.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…c321backed No | 78c | 347.04$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.23 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 75c | 341.27$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.15 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 10c | 334.91$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 3c | 320$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 4c | 320$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked Yes | 6c | 308.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 157 | 22.9%36 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 15c | 308.7$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.02 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…b752backed Yes | 7c | 269.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 40c | 251.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed Yes | 7c | 214.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe094…11cdbacked Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 71c | 199.97$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.04 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 10c | 192$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 19c | 189.91$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.63 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…acdfbacked Yes | 8c | 186.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 13c | 173.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 170.31$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.47 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 6c | 165$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 8c | 132.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 15c | 124.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…05a5backed Yes | 10c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 84 | 26.2%22 W · 62 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 61c | 110$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 76 | 60.5%46 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 11c | 92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9024…6220backed Yes | 17c | 91.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1233…f7abbacked Yes | 18c | 65.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 73c | 65$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.79 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c70…edf3backed Yes | 15c | 64.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bd…eab2backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 40c | 62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6da7…b120backed Yes | 24c | 61.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 23c | 58.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 79c | 51.84$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d45…097dbacked Yes | 21c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10fe…9af6backed Yes | 35c | 47.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 65c | 42.32$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 61c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x364a…4363backed No | 58c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 68 | 63.2%43 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa921…f0eabacked No | 60c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 93 | 62.4%58 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 69c | 21.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 57c | 18.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 61c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 79c | 15.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on May 28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.