Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on May 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd5c2870132bb19952c49f2073b877bbcd14bed08942c3a79ccc3b5f547d7807
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,396
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,431
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,396 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x967f…6990backed No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked No | 2c | 2,411$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.04 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 64c | 1,000$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.06 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 16c | 786.02$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.24 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9024…6220backed No | 22c | 635.13$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.86 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 8c | 571.17$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.18 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 20c | 544.5$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.48 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 32c | 513.15$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.11 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed No | 7c | 424.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 80c | 406.49$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.95 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed No | 8c | 405.76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f29…475abacked Yes | 73c | 398.31$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.99 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…cfc6backed Yes | 51c | 375.89$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.13 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 7c | 366$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3288…b8cebacked No | 5c | 365.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 9c | 356.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf709…7697backed No | 10c | 350$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f03…c848backed No | 17c | 294.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 10c | 259.05$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked No | 4c | 253.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 157 | 22.9%36 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 12c | 243.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f3…d2acbacked No | 10c | 243$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 48c | 207.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.96 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed No | 7c | 205.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 47c | 200.89$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.73 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 36c | 199.97$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.68 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…c321backed Yes | 39c | 189.93$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.19 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 44c | 187.96$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.02 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 16c | 181.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 24c | 179.66$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.93 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 7c | 177.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x302e…88ccbacked No | 11c | 166.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 63c | 159.02$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.02 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 20c | 155$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.17 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfac4…806dbacked Yes | 65c | 153.95$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.95 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 7c | 151$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 8c | 147$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 51c | 146.85$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.2 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 15c | 138$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…5d3abacked Yes | 43c | 116.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.56 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 43c | 114.09$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.63 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 49c | 110$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 76 | 60.5%46 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed No | 10c | 106.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 24c | 99.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb739…a47bbacked Yes | 78c | 70.7$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 47c | 70.65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.36 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 35c | 66.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 71c | 66$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 19c | 65.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 44c | 61$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.16 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 53c | 60.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x578e…ae91backed Yes | 59c | 57.68$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 28c | 56.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc4…4ef0backed Yes | 54c | 56.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 26c | 51.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10fe…9af6backed Yes | 35c | 47.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.94 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc07…53f6backed Yes | 72c | 46.48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d05…1742backed Yes | 41c | 45.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +146.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda0…8992backed Yes | 46c | 43.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bed…e6d2backed Yes | 78c | 40.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e6…e67abacked Yes | 69c | 34.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 39c | 33.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc970…e315backed No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9848…f408backed Yes | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 78c | 23.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 53c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05bc…008abacked No | 60c | 17.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on May 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.