Champions League · resolved market
Athletic Club vs. Sporting CP: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc9737819725e89de101768566987d1fe333e745512a4df513f3cfabdb11ba2d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,114
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,028
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,114 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 76c | 2,506$1,914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,914.17 | 2,025 | 43.7%884 W · 1,141 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 13c | 1,500$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,304.97 | 243 | 27.2%66 W · 177 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Over | 14c | 964.63$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.58 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Under | 64c | 703.13$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 220 | 54.1%119 W · 101 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 60c | 499.99$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5b…0584backed Under | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.14 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…f012backed Under | 51c | 294.23$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 45c | 283.95$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.17 | 1,543 | 40.1%618 W · 925 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 15c | 266.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.67 | 152 | 36.8%56 W · 96 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0666…d31abacked Over | 41c | 246.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.89 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 60c | 239.05$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.18 | 401 | 43.4%174 W · 227 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Over | 13c | 115.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.37 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed Over | 67c | 110$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 33c | 106.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 435 | 37.9%165 W · 270 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…c47fbacked Over | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed Over | 80c | 89.21$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +5.1wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c2…ba6ebacked Over | 46c | 67$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.31 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb4…9854backed Under | 40c | 50.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x362b…9534backed Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 51c | 49.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 338 | 51.5%174 W · 164 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03c8…3d82backed Over | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.88 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 48c | 44.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 116 | 53.4%62 W · 54 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 41c | 39.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 200 | 42.5%85 W · 115 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 43c | 33.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 277 | 50.2%139 W · 138 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…05d5backed Over | 67c | 33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4f…5459backed Under | 58c | 32.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc87…d938backed Over | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf804…8028backed Under | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65d8…bac6backed Over | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40c…53f6backed Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletic Club vs. Sporting CP: O/U 4.5this page
- Athletic Club vs. Sporting CP: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Athletic Club vs. Sporting CP: O/U 1.5Over won
- Athletic Club vs. Sporting CP: O/U 2.5Over won
- Athletic Club vs. Sporting CP: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.