Champions League · resolved market
Athletic Club vs. Sporting CP: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ea7869b98f944b7c4a8df2eadb970039e92dd4d6028aa184152c38243d5c602
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,944
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,566
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,944 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 53c | 3,265$1,715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,714.83 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa632…4c96backed Over | 30c | 2,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 70c | 1,343$944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$943.72 | 597 | 41.7%249 W · 348 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 29c | 505.83$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.14 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 30c | 371$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.35 | 380 | 43.9%167 W · 213 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Under | 72c | 357$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.04 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Over | 28c | 350$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 239 | 47.7%114 W · 125 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 36c | 221.23$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.01 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6aa…3746backed Over | 29c | 200$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 72c | 199.36$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.54 | 256 | 59.8%153 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.41 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…c097backed Over | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 30c | 133.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.33 | 152 | 36.8%56 W · 96 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 30c | 133.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.33 | 206 | 55.3%114 W · 92 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa44e…d155backed Under | 54c | 92.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 29c | 55.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.48 | 70 | 27.1%19 W · 51 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Over | 28c | 55.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.81 | 162 | 51.2%83 W · 79 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Over | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 24c | 49.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 397 | 43.3%172 W · 225 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 65c | 49.1$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 424 | 38%161 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 54c | 44.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 116 | 53.4%62 W · 54 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 47c | 41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 48c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 601 | 36.9%222 W · 379 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…9dccbacked Over | 52c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff9…46bbbacked Under | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 51c | 26.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 434 | 27.4%119 W · 315 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 76c | 26.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 200 | 42.5%85 W · 115 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 291 | 42.3%123 W · 168 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 104 | 65.4%68 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…4287backed Under | 72c | 21.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletic Club vs. Sporting CP: O/U 3.5this page
- Athletic Club vs. Sporting CP: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Athletic Club vs. Sporting CP: O/U 1.5Over won
- Athletic Club vs. Sporting CP: O/U 2.5Over won
- Athletic Club vs. Sporting CP: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.