Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfcb3ca53aa641d5488d1c9e9a131f4acef3e8cadf2a4fcfb2816fe39629580f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,650
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,270
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,650 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe93…0d83backed No | 8c | 245.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 29c | 243.95$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.79 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 17c | 226.19$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 67c | 217.94$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.99 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 22c | 212.87$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 6c | 187.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 15c | 135.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.73 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 68c | 116.87$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.75 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…2650backed Yes | 78c | 114.18$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 88 | 77.3%68 W · 20 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes | 17c | 102.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.03 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 27c | 98.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.74 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 14c | 98.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 68c | 98.29$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7a…24f9backed Yes | 79c | 89.14$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed No | 41c | 88.63$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.53 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2120…a5a7backed No | 16c | 87.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 61c | 85.76$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 18c | 84.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 27c | 78.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.82 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78c2…53adbacked Yes | 22c | 67.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.07 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…c46ebacked Yes | 16c | 66.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.42 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a87…911fbacked Yes | 18c | 63.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.22 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9568…96afbacked Yes | 53c | 55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 43c | 53.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 52.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x589b…0ec7backed No | 52c | 51.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79f8…7ffebacked Yes | 70c | 42.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 57c | 41.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 39c | 41.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 30c | 39.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 75c | 39.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 28c | 35.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 69c | 31.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 35c | 31.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 79c | 30.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 66c | 28.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…c6f6backed No | 80c | 25.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.6wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b5…5d04backed No | 44c | 23.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on July 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C on July 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.