Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfcd5bc716dc2affd9651e6aeb1de1e7330b762583caf712445fe1ce09e389a8b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,137
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,023
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,137 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 45c | 310.24$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.15 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 56c | 289.89$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.34 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 73c | 257.68$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.55 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 49c | 256$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.84 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 44c | 239.25$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.98 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 43c | 193.91$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.87 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed No | 32c | 167.21$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.96 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 35c | 141$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.44 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 53c | 136.91$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.65 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 53c | 136.82$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 43c | 120$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.36 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 13c | 110$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 51c | 88.81$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.86 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked No | 19c | 84.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 38c | 81.45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.77 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 58c | 77.1$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 60c | 71$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 18c | 69.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 33c | 68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.56 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…3208backed Yes | 39c | 67.63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.41 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 34c | 67.08$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.58 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed Yes | 48c | 64.54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.56 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 55c | 63.08$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 46c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 44c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 44c | 55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 36c | 53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 44c | 48.07$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.82 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 48c | 47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 44c | 45.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabbd…d4bcbacked Yes | 45c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 130 | 10.8%14 W · 116 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 59c | 42.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb23…10edbacked No | 56c | 42.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc576…89b8backed Yes | 45c | 41.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.78 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 55c | 40.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…b4d7backed No | 61c | 39.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 103 | 60.2%62 W · 41 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 63c | 38.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed Yes | 37c | 38.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 36c | 38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 39c | 37.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.15 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8241…1ababacked Yes | 45c | 36.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b9…1eebbacked No | 56c | 35.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +3.8wins | +0.24per pick | 64cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 56c | 34.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 47c | 34.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 57c | 31.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 51c | 31.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 46c | 30.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed No | 56c | 30.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 30.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 44c | 30.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 48c | 28.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 67c | 27.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 52c | 26.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 52c | 26.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 42c | 25.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 63c | 24.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed No | 62c | 22.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 56c | 21.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab8…a59fbacked Yes | 48c | 20.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 57cpaid | +49%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfad0…3a91backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.23per pick | 58cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 51c | 19.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 19.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 62c | 18.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b84…9f88backed No | 59c | 18.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 9°C on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.