Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x819208b4ecad3de66420bafc3fc4f36e9d74dfe206e20b56b36ffec32353aab7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,541
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,999
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,541 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 27c | 690.66$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.79 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 69c | 396$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.76 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 38c | 271$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.76 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 30c | 256$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…3b38backed No | 71c | 140.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.21 | 124 | 73.4%91 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 70c | 121$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 11c | 117.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 90.63$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.15 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 78c | 90.61$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 28c | 88.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 14c | 83.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 58c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 69c | 74.68$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.27 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 37c | 67.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 66.05$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 57c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabbd…d4bcbacked Yes | 36c | 59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 130 | 10.8%14 W · 116 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 31c | 56.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 55.18$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 29c | 55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…5e72backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 61c | 49.81$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fb…182cbacked Yes | 68c | 47.17$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.09 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 73c | 42.36$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 39.49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 31c | 38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 67c | 37.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 68c | 35.09$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 39c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 61c | 29.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…0484backed Yes | 36c | 28.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 161 | 29.2%47 W · 114 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82fc…565cbacked No | 71c | 28.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…8110backed No | 58c | 25.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4612…d575backed No | 66c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 94 | 70.2%66 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 58c | 23.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 62c | 20.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 63c | 20.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fef…816bbacked No | 72c | 19.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 79c | 18.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 71c | 18.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 71c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 71c | 16.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 69c | 14.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 70c | 14.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 70c | 14.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…4dedbacked No | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on July 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 9°C on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.