Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfcf0084723418b4620f2b8f3f16af1c478aa929f826ee36b05791475c048660f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,759
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,389
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,759 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 72c | 911.06$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.71 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 2c | 587.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 4c | 549.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 16c | 528.95$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.45 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 399.76$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.33 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 7c | 351.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…ef14backed Yes | 19c | 267.04$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 25c | 266.63$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.16 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 6c | 254.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 13c | 252.95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.91 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91f4…d093backed Yes | 5c | 229.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 150 | 32%48 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 25c | 222.93$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.14 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 13c | 212.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 77c | 192.29$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.55 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 76c | 171.17$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.41 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 15c | 170.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 17c | 131.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 13c | 126.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 125.99$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.13 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 9c | 125.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b7…eeb5backed Yes | 15c | 123.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x571d…4e76backed Yes | 10c | 116.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked No | 79c | 110.88$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.51 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed Yes | 22c | 110.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 28c | 106.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3797…efeabacked Yes | 17c | 99.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 22c | 99.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 11c | 97.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82d8…03eabacked Yes | 19c | 87.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 116 | 12.1%14 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 77c | 86.94$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 76c | 79.56$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 80c | 76$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 28c | 68.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8c…23c8backed No | 74c | 65.28$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed No | 78c | 60.5$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 59.4$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 74c | 56.12$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 71c | 55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 71c | 55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 23c | 54.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb7…d9b8backed Yes | 28c | 49.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 72 | 23.6%17 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 74c | 40.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 26c | 39.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 72c | 37.88$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 79c | 30.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 72c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 76c | 27.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…dacbbacked No | 79c | 26.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 169 | 50.9%86 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec24…8adabacked No | 79c | 25.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 69cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 77c | 24.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…cd28backed No | 67c | 15.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe010…5147backed No | 77c | 13.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -17.1wins | -0.29per pick | 59cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 27-0.20 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on July 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C or below on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on July 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on July 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.