Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85e4a68da90e9b1a80401884a1d48d1d4c7561bdce293a557dd60ddfd8f245b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,262
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,016
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,262 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc8c…273fbacked No | 0c | 48,442$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4a…a5a5backed Yes | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.14 | 35 | 94.3%33 W · 2 L | +13.8wins | +0.40per pick | 55cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 76+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 29c | 904.15$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.77 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 786.89$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.79 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8320…e302backed Yes | 34c | 639.89$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.07 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 71c | 511$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.81 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 25c | 498.36$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.59 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 35c | 435.24$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.91 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 37c | 435.24$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.2 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 74c | 350.93$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.13 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 16c | 288.23$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.62 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 31c | 280.22$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.73 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 19c | 279.32$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.61 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef32…265cbacked No | 80c | 250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 24c | 225$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 43c | 221.26$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.03 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 18c | 220.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.28 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 61c | 207.68$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.14 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 67c | 197.12$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.32 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 20c | 184.28$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.12 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 23c | 175.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.67 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 79c | 170.81$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.53 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 7c | 169.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.23 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 13c | 162.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.53 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 71c | 160$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.6 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 38c | 157.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.51 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 150$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.77 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 37c | 141.79$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.83 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 17c | 141.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.81 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 14c | 138.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.1 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 64c | 134.6$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.68 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 60c | 132.18$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.04 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 17c | 130.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.07 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 40c | 130$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.4 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44ed…21fdbacked No | 69c | 127.57$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 19c | 123.81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.73 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 16c | 122.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 34c | 121.11$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.97 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 24c | 119.33$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.17 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 18c | 118$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.76 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 20c | 114$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.76 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 78c | 113.49$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.96 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…ef14backed Yes | 33c | 106.14$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.14 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 11c | 100.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.68 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3daf…15d6backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3797…efeabacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 71c | 99.99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8f…6e47backed Yes | 10c | 97.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +223.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 16c | 94.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.44 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 32c | 92.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 38c | 89.66$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.32 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 33c | 87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 18c | 86.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 18c | 84.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.74 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 76c | 82.01$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 59c | 78.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 16c | 78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.64 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ec…5946backed No | 65c | 76.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed No | 65c | 76.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed Yes | 27c | 75.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.13 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed No | 67c | 74.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.34 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 62c | 74.57$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.92 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 37c | 72.27$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.63 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 35c | 68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.95 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6c…1633backed No | 74c | 67.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 62.2$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 60.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.18 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.55 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 76c | 59.92$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.72 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 72c | 59.03$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.57 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8c…23c8backed No | 63c | 56.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.09 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa967…79a5backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 36c | 49.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.06 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x701d…d115backed No | 68c | 49.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 31c | 49.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 67c | 48.41$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.44 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3473…e864backed Yes | 39c | 46.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.65 | 111 | 34.2%38 W · 73 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1906…c647backed No | 70c | 46.83$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…24d7backed Yes | 45c | 44.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 72c | 43.16$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 75c | 40.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 38c | 37.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 69c | 37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 40c | 36.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 74c | 36.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f24…64b5backed No | 69c | 34.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a89…de7dbacked Yes | 41c | 34.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 61c | 32.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed Yes | 74c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +14.7wins | +0.18per pick | 58cpaid | +39%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 67c | 30.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…cd28backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01d…0af5backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b62…042fbacked No | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 67c | 29.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 35c | 29.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on July 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C or below on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on July 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.