Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x142015599018adb5af4627a52e9f8198cc8e19e731e37f147e84813ef69a1ac9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,314
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,582
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,314 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 520.26$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.06 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 58c | 517.44$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.44 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8320…e302backed Yes | 34c | 422.64$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.61 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 41c | 309.56$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.56 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 43c | 293.53$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.24 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 35c | 253.14$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 38c | 252.45$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.23 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 20c | 245.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 237$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.54 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 62c | 201.46$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.57 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 72c | 189.08$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.35 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bdc…e076backed Yes | 59c | 185.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 180.89$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 79c | 174.75$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.38 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 34c | 174$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.09 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 34c | 171.47$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.69 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 11c | 161.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 68c | 161.05$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.15 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…693cbacked No | 64c | 156.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.63 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 66cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 36c | 156.01$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.16 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 61c | 153.16$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.73 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes | 39c | 149.02$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.13 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 72c | 146$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.68 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 34c | 144.63$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.52 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed No | 70c | 141.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.93 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 69c | 141.29$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.29 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 26c | 138.4$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.54 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 17c | 133$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 11c | 130.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 32c | 126.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.45 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 29c | 125.72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…ef14backed Yes | 26c | 115.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3797…efeabacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3daf…15d6backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 18c | 96.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 41c | 93.25$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.19 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 26c | 90.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 32c | 90.46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 41c | 80$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 36c | 76.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 40c | 70$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8c…23c8backed No | 75c | 65.74$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 61.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 33c | 59.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 76c | 58.46$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 34c | 58.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 73c | 56.38$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 38c | 50.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 52c | 50.41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 30c | 50.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 42c | 50.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 71c | 49.24$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 31c | 48.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 35c | 46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed No | 78c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 32c | 44.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 56c | 44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 40c | 42.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 65c | 42.33$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 42.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed No | 70c | 39.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 39.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a89…de7dbacked Yes | 32c | 38.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd62a…de09backed Yes | 43c | 35.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e4…4753backed No | 68c | 33.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +41%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 77c | 33.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 40c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 48c | 31.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca4…118dbacked No | 76c | 30.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…0484backed Yes | 43c | 30.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 161 | 29.2%47 W · 114 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 69c | 30.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 78c | 29.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 28.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 72c | 27.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 79c | 26.11$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc17…886abacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 72 | 81.9%59 W · 13 L | +8.8wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 68c | 24.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 51c | 24.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 69c | 21.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 69c | 21.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc67e…8929backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01d…0af5backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 70c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 60c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f24…64b5backed No | 72c | 16.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafa2…91a5backed No | 70c | 16.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked No | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x571d…4e76backed No | 77c | 15.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.49 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 70c | 14.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…b4d7backed No | 80c | 14.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.84 | 103 | 60.2%62 W · 41 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 76c | 14.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on July 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C or below on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on July 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on July 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.