AI · resolved market
Will Elon Musk's net worth be at least $500b on December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfcf72546639f2ecb739db9ba47204f026233c5a0bdb6c8bd5a6f051db2b8455c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,559
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,055
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,559 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0027…020bbacked No | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 1,099$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed No | 1c | 1,098$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -58%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 12c | 531.59$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.95 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46ee…0752backed No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 19c | 398.96$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.42 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 18c | 372.03$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.49 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c07…cc3bbacked No | 6c | 343.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked No | 22c | 300.55$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.19 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 14c | 204.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce60…6705backed No | 22c | 190.26$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.62 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…a8c9backed No | 17c | 173.34$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 11c | 125.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 42c | 99.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.47 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 17c | 89.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 91 | 57.1%52 W · 39 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed No | 75c | 80$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked No | 28c | 71.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed No | 37c | 70$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 55c | 65.87$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab00…48fbbacked No | 34c | 38.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be at least $500b on December 31?this page
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $440b and $450b on December 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $450b and $460b on December 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $460b and $470b on December 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $470b and $480b on December 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $480b and $490b on December 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $490b and $500b on December 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be less than $440b on December 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.