Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on May 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd1487fffb45ec68e548598f84c7f8694c489905700f2f0fa08e21e4647bffd0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,699
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,387
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,699 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe004…a97ebacked No | 65c | 610.42$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.32 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 44c | 557.99$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.25 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd564…58d0backed Yes | 53c | 434.83$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.27 | 180 | 30.6%55 W · 125 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 26c | 246.28$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.56 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 37c | 206.89$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.87 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 17c | 186$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 33c | 169.13$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.08 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 51c | 160.02$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.67 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8f…3b86backed Yes | 50c | 154.26$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.66 | 179 | 34.1%61 W · 118 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 71c | 93.9$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf43…66f5backed Yes | 20c | 86.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 102 | 34.3%35 W · 67 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 58c | 86.48$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.53 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 50c | 82.36$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.46 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 71c | 70.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 25c | 69.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb722…f03abacked Yes | 66c | 62.58$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 28c | 53.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 77c | 50.77$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 75c | 49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 80c | 48.92$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 76c | 48.91$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.94 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 80c | 45.94$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 69c | 44.96$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 34c | 43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.36 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67c1…8205backed Yes | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…6bd8backed Yes | 60c | 42.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +5.6wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd3…5b9abacked Yes | 44c | 39.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 78c | 37.77$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16fa…25ffbacked No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 46 | 82.6%38 W · 8 L | +7.8wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 74c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 76c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 73c | 33.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbb27…cc9dbacked Yes | 56c | 31.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 52c | 30.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01f2…c3debacked Yes | 65c | 28.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -18.5wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 58c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4302…8d4fbacked Yes | 38c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa2…7e87backed Yes | 38c | 27.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62e2…1f89backed No | 76c | 25.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 73c | 24.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed No | 74c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 69c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…cc41backed Yes | 44c | 22.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe022…12c5backed Yes | 51c | 20.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 61c | 19.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f01…4c3abacked Yes | 72c | 18.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 161 | 59%95 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 74c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd9…ad53backed No | 77c | 15.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 75c | 15.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76b3…7d44backed No | 70c | 15.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -16.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on May 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on May 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C or higher on May 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.