Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on August 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd317723c4145dabcb914d37ab33ece0644509783c25472800f9d07cca343a10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,477
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,150
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,477 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 10c | 366.9$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 38c | 240.35$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.7 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 13c | 240.24$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.69 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 19c | 236.85$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.15 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 45c | 180.63$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.02 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 58c | 173.83$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.62 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 36c | 161.67$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.94 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 56c | 161.44$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.44 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 63c | 143.99$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.27 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…1ea9backed Yes | 78c | 127.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.68 | 155 | 70.3%109 W · 46 L | +23.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked Yes | 38c | 120.68$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.66 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 46c | 117.47$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.47 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 52c | 102.67$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.67 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 59c | 96.89$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.53 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 57c | 82.19$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 58c | 80.02$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.53 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ae…bcc7backed Yes | 41c | 78.43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.1 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 50c | 50.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…ccccbacked Yes | 73c | 49.5$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…1c6ebacked No | 46c | 47.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf1c…b366backed Yes | 78c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…9ad4backed No | 48c | 44.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 42.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…0f66backed Yes | 52c | 42.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 48c | 42.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…6004backed Yes | 70c | 37.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 58c | 35.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c0…eb75backed No | 55c | 34.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 31.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 43c | 30.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2c29…f3bbbacked No | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…fccdbacked Yes | 70c | 29.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa23e…bcf5backed Yes | 57c | 29.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x282c…ddeabacked Yes | 57c | 26.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfafa…619abacked Yes | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 57c | 22.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed No | 49c | 22.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0114…f0b9backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on August 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C or below on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on August 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.