Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 72-73°F on April 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd38fc3fb3c132f67569934e43e0d2da0b54cc1d2f74abc10832ee184f295c7d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,262
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,721
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,262 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7be…570cbacked Yes | 52c | 1,830$956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$874.36 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…c0a5backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbd…ed66backed No | 68c | 672.71$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.32 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 59c | 597.48$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.3 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c1…e8b0backed No | 40c | 405.5$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.2 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 59c | 398.31$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.57 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58db…ea03backed No | 34c | 380$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.6 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f77…9d8ebacked Yes | 25c | 340$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +100%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 41c | 297.68$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.96 | 95 | 23.2%22 W · 73 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 62c | 239.05$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa248…ad41backed No | 45c | 220$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…005fbacked Yes | 67c | 200.34$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.52 | 600 | 33.8%203 W · 397 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 44c | 199.99$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.99 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed No | 6c | 174.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7384…1ebdbacked Yes | 38c | 169.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.6 | 140 | 22.1%31 W · 109 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…d4b6backed Yes | 60c | 125.33$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.33 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 69cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8589…af65backed No | 45c | 120.29$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.86 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.8wins | -0.43per pick | 54cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbc12…1e02backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 64cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 356 | 27%96 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51b7…d820backed Yes | 40c | 89$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.07 | 254 | 36.6%93 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2431…51babacked Yes | 51c | 65.98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 67c | 51.8$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 259 | 47.5%123 W · 136 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e6…2cc5backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 205 | 56.1%115 W · 90 L | +25.5wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Yes | 69c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +5.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd0…fcddbacked No | 60c | 42.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 62c | 42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 62c | 42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 100 | 61%61 W · 39 L | +9.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0cfe…b99fbacked No | 30c | 41.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c45…f0d8backed Yes | 62c | 40.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed No | 56c | 38.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133f…0792backed No | 55c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 72-73°F on April 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 66-67°F on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 68-69°F on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 70-71°F on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 74-75°F on April 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.