Bundesliga · resolved market
FC Augsburg vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd45ef7d2f9de1c2b35dce9ce9ed96ccb0c073294322c826d3d25ca570ea67af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,372
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,190
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,372 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 79c | 3,297$2,603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$693.98 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 22c | 1,500$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2496…50a5backed Over | 23c | 1,304$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Over | 21c | 1,250$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.5 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Over | 23c | 895.38$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.94 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Over | 22c | 681.82$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fc…1511backed Over | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc938…af43backed Under | 78c | 239$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.57 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 79c | 226.15$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.49 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a42…2a7ebacked Over | 18c | 222.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 77c | 216$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.68 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc48…2427backed Over | 23c | 213.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 8c | 212.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 21c | 190.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Over | 22c | 184.55$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Under | 79c | 150$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Under | 79c | 150$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4138…6a24backed Under | 80c | 130$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 21 | 85.7%18 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 70cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc71d…3f27backed Under | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked Under | 79c | 124$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e6…71e4backed Under | 79c | 105$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed Under | 79c | 97$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…a35bbacked Under | 79c | 92$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Under | 79c | 85$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 14c | 79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 165 | 42.4%70 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…88d1backed Under | 79c | 69$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -42%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Over | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Over | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2c…38ccbacked Over | 21c | 56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10f7…26f0backed Under | 79c | 55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x649a…02afbacked Under | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 47 | 85.1%40 W · 7 L | +5.6wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 21c | 49.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1c…dc02backed Over | 23c | 47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd902…d076backed Over | 24c | 43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…065abacked Under | 79c | 39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98cd…9417backed Under | 79c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc4…63f6backed Under | 79c | 34.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed Under | 80c | 31.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a1…e6f5backed Under | 78c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedad…ed92backed Under | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc7…55f6backed Under | 79c | 15.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.31 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Under | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 94 | 68.1%64 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Augsburg vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 3.5this page
- FC Augsburg vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Augsburg vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Augsburg vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Augsburg vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Augsburg (-1.5)1. FC Union Berlin won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.