Lol · resolved market
Total Kills Over/Under 25.5 in Game 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd4939355165871d56478149021d5b1ab325aac2243868831be2a42274f593d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,875
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,875 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Under | 32c | 1,199$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$815.51 | 3,584 | 40.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L | +31.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddc4…0270backed Over | 68c | 294.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 266 | 39.5%105 W · 161 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d45…30b6backed Over | 68c | 264.16$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.63 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89fe…908abacked Over | 68c | 158.01$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.45 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -4.6wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…fcccbacked Over | 68c | 154.54$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.09 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e06…40c9backed Over | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd166…666ebacked Over | 68c | 96.93$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.91 | 69 | 65.2%45 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x703e…9828backed Over | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6da…f0e0backed Over | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 80c | 21.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 227 | 48%109 W · 118 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ab…2f5abacked Under | 52c | 20.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Total Kills Over/Under 25.5 in Game 3?this page
- First Blood in Game 1?Bilibili Gaming won
- First Blood in Game 2?Bilibili Gaming won
- First Blood in Game 3?Bilibili Gaming won
- First Blood in Game 4?G2 Esports won
- Game 1: Any Player Quadra Kill?No won
- Game 1: Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors?No won
- Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor?No won
- Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs G2 Esports (+1.5)Bilibili Gaming won
- Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs G2 Esports (+2.5)G2 Esports won
- Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Bilibili Gaming (+1.5)Bilibili Gaming won
- Game Handicap: G2 (-2.5) vs Bilibili Gaming (+2.5)Bilibili Gaming won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Over won
- Games Total: O/U 4.5Under won
- LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand PlayoffsBilibili Gaming won
- LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 WinnerG2 Esports won
- LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 WinnerBilibili Gaming won
- LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 WinnerBilibili Gaming won
- LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 WinnerBilibili Gaming won
- Total Kills Over/Under 25.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 25.5 in Game 2?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 26.5 in Game 3?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 2?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 3?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.